Trend Forecasting - From Fads to Fashion in the Digital Age

1. Introduction: Hi, I'm generals on and I'll be your instructor with skill share class. I am a Chicago or La Pena, And a mother, too, had creative dreams the very beginning, despite hardships growing up. Attended art School is a first generation student, was the first of my family to complete college and a graduate degree with the courage running in fashion design illustration and digital media. Over the last 11 years, I've come to merge my creative passions into the work that I do as a freelancer running my own index studio. I Let s be a creative the name. Yes, it's inspired by my two amazing daughters when I'm not freelancing. Creating that could be found teaching in the fashion and business departments at local universities and colleges in the Chicagoland area. I've been a professor for eight years now, and teaching is something that I truly enjoy, which is why I'm here today. I'm looking forward to bringing the concepts that I'm so used teaching in the classroom to the online space. I'll be sharing insight to the trend forecasting processes I teach my students as well as how I use it in my own work with surface better design illustration For the digital media and fashion industries, this course trend forecasting from bats to faction in the digital age is one of be a general overview of fashion, design and merchandising industries, with the focus on trend analysis and fashion theories as they apply to trend forecasting in this modern digital world, students will get an insider's perspective of how trend cycle in and out over the years, and an understanding of how society, culture, economy and politics all can influence the trends that we see in fashion lifestyle so much throughout this class, students will learn some of principles of fashion as well as how did spread the fashion cycle. And it's back on the adoption of faction in the consumer role. We'll also be looking at how to interpret the fashion cycle so that analyze and predict future fashion trends. 2. Course Project Overview: all right for your class Project will be applying forecasting methods by exploring the trickle up and trickle down theory on the purpose behind this assignment is basically to showcase this theory at play in the world world, as well as to get you to sharpen your eye to trends on the street and in your research work . You will review three Key Runway Chun's and then show how they're being executed in streets now on Daniel Show three Street style trends and how they're being executed on the runway. So this class is geared towards beginners. You don't need any prior experience in the fashion industry. But of course, an interest in fashion and trends would be really helpful. The information outlined in the lessons are meant to be informative and offer a new perspective on the fashion and retail industries. Some very basic technical skills will be needed to use the camera templates that I've provided for the class project. Campbell is a really intuitive online platform, and it's really easy to use. And to make things even simpler, I've created a whole template for the class project that only requires you to update, taxed and drag, and drop images you can access the class project template in the resource is section on the website and also remember to make a copy of it first and then work on that copy. So you're not working on the original that I've created, and I'll quickly do a really, really fast, simple run through how to use the template at the very, very end of our course. 3. What is Forecasting?: So what is fashion forecasting? Essentially, it's a global career that focuses on upcoming trusts of fashion. Forecaster predicts the colors, fabrics, textures, materials, prints, graphics, beauty and grooming accessories, footwear, street cell and other styles that will be presented on the runway and in the stores for the upcoming season. In the retail world, the concept applies to not one but all levels of the fashion industry, including hope, couture, ready to wear mass market and streetwear. When we talk about fashion forecasting, we also have to talk about this idea, the general idea of trend forecasting. So when we're talking about trend forecasting, it's an overall process that focuses on other industries, such as automobiles, medicine, food and beverages, literature and home furnishings. Fashion forecasters are responsible for attracting consumers and helping retail businesses and designers sell their brands. Today, the fashion is true. Workers rely on the Internet to retrieve information on new looks, hot colors, celebrity wardrobe and designer collections. Websites such as W GSN have become in mainstay in the industry when it comes to forecasting . But when we're talking about forecasting today, really focusing on the fashion side of things 4. What Forecasters Do: So what if forecasters to well, trend forecasters are the ones that usually work for either agencies or big retailers at their corporate headquarters, and they're the ones that locate the source of trends. They use their knowledge to identify emerging concepts in the world in terms of fashion and retail. They work in many kinds of different firms. All forecasters have frequent travel. They often go to different conventions, expose on. They travel the world to see what is going on globally so that they can apply it to the work that they're doing in the retail world. Here in the States, they also work in trend analysis firms that consult with companies. Forecasters typically work with buyers and merchandisers when you're looking at the retail set up, Ah, and fashion forecasters are responsible for attracting consumers and basically helping retail businesses and designers sell their brands and their products. Today, fashion industry workers really rely on the Internet to retrieve information about new looks. As I said before, whether it's the hat color, celebrity wardrobes, designer collections, the Internet has become a huge place for us to access information and connect with others, but they're still inspired by the world around them by urban hubs, museums, travel and that times other industries outside of the fashion world. The fashion forecasting process includes the basic steps of understanding the vision of the business and the profile of the target customer. Also collecting information about available merchandise, prepping information, determining trends and then choosing merchandise appropriate for the company and their target customers. It's really important to have a really good grasp of who your brand is, or the brand that you're working with, who they are on the target customer that you're attempting to connect with. 5. What is Fashion & Understanding Trends: before we understand the process of forecasting, we have to gain some insight on the concept of fashion. While it may seem frivolous to some, fashion is actually a really complex phenomenon from psychological, sociological, cultural and commercial points of views. Clothing choices expressed personal style and individuality. But they also serve to change a person's image to fit the situations that they're in and the expectations of others. The drivers behind fashion are these dual ideas off following the lead in the industry and also that of standing out. Defining fashion means working within the confines of popular culture, which in turn could make it really difficult to take it serious. Sometimes sometimes it consume super extreme and frivolous. And then other times, Sometimes ugly things are in fashion. To better understand how a new style becomes accepted in fashion, we have to understand the differences between the terms classic and sad. So we're talking about those classic and fats idea gun off trend. Um comes into play as well, but we're looking at it a little bit differently. In this case, the trend is what is popular at the time. It's really similar to a fad with the exception that a trend generally has the potential to become a long term influence on the market. Leggings and ath leisure are just two examples of this whole concept, whereas a classic fashion. It's a style that lasts for several seasons, sometimes even years, and it's accepted by a wide range of people. Classics are those styles that you don't even have to think about. You just know that it will be acceptable. They're always going to be in fashion, and you just put him on and go. So running shoes are a really good example of a classic style. So even people who have no intention of ever running they often own running shoes. So keep in mind though, the details on those thousands of shoes and change from one season to another. But the basic design and concept remains the same. A simple black dress, a worsted wool suit, a leather bomber drafted these air all other really great examples of classic fashions that tend to repeat themselves year after year. Ah, fat, on the other hand, is a design that last only one season, or sometimes even less than the season. Fads tend to be at the extreme end of the design world. Short truce the color that bright green yellowy color is a fad that raises its ugly had about every 10 years, but it never quite makes it into the mainstream world. The fashion one reason fads come and go so quickly is that they appeal to a very small number of people. There are only a few brave souls who could wear short truce and that look like they're on their way out to a Halloween party. Keep in mind that fashion is not only related toe apparel, it is present in the design of cars and architecture and so much more. It's also in the changing tastes and cuisine and the development in Tak understanding. Fashion helps explain how these evolutions and transformations occur. Scholars have long believed that each era has a unique spirit, a nature or climate that really sets it apart from all other periods of time. In German, this is known as the zeitgeist. Essentially, it's the spirit of the times. This idea absolutely plays into the concept of fashion, because fashion is often influenced by outside forces, including things like politics, the economic times, cultural influences and so much more. So when we think back to the idea of the zeitgeist, what do we believe impacts that zeitgeist? Typically, it has been the dominating social groups, so the people and those with wealth, power and leadership positions. Yet I like to counter that we're seeing a transition towards a democratized industry where regular people hold justice much power as those in traditional leadership roles in the industry. So this idea of influencers plays into this, and the trajectory between the role of bloggers versus editors like anyone tour in the fashion industry has become a very level playing field. Retailers have begun to harness the power of the influence over the last 10 years or so, which is why we're seeing a surge of online content and the unfortunate demise of the more traditional publishing industry. But that's not to say that the media giants still don't hold demand. So as we work through forecasting, we often find that fashion trends come in cycles. We will talk about this more lessons to come, but often they're based in time. So essentially an era, fashion arrows are usually defined based on impactful moments that resonate throughout the period of time. So some examples include House Done during the 19 seventies. So that key idea of a designer signature style or Jackie O in the early 19 sixties. So she was considered ah, style leader. Ah, the flappers of the 19 twenties is we're very much a fashion look, which were was that impactful moment during that time period or a market segment. So the rising middle class during the 19 fifties or a celebrity icon, Lady Gaga during the two thousands. And even today, it's also important to note that fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is created and worn. There has been a huge shift in the direction that the fashion industry is going in. Personally, I think it's a good direction, as major industry players are now required to be accountable for the impact that they're having on society in terms of the impact on the environment, the people that they're working with and so on. We're also seeing polarity in terms of how far fashion now be pushed today and the extremes of fast fashion. We're seeing a rising aesthetic standard and need for transparency. Off focus on ethical consumerism and environmental focus is a shift from the idea of appropriateness to this idea that anything goes. There's a huge shift from fashion seasons to seasonless dressing a chef from fashion experts to consumer opinion, which is where we see that idea of the blogger and influencers on Instagram. 6. Fashion Adoption Theories: now that we have some basic understanding of the fashion industry, the ideas behind it and how it's evolving, I want to talk more about the fashion theories relating to the very innovations that we're seeing within fashion. We will be talking about the diffusion curve, the fashion cycle and the trickle down and trickle up theories. If you'd like to add some notes of the section online, there will also be very helpful to you as you complete your class project. All right, so we're talking about these concepts just because it's really important to look at them and understand them and see how they apply to this idea of the fashion cycle, as well as how it all ties to the idea of fashion trends. So this diffusion of innovations. It's basically a theory that explains the how, why and at what rate new ideas and technologies spread. Albert Rogers, a professor of communications studies popular, is the theory in his book, The Diffusion of Innovations. The diffusion curve basically illustrates how a trans starts slowly peaks and then declines among consumers in a process that resembles a bell shaped curve, and this also relates to the purchase patterns that we see consumers. So when we look at this concept, we see this bell shaped curve, which essentially outlines how a consumer actually adapts a new product or new fashion. So they're different people that are part of this. The categories off adopters are innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and the laggards. Innovators air basically risk takers. So the first individuals to adopt in the Haitian they're willing to take risks. The early adopters. They are the second fastest category to adapt an innovation. The early majority. This is the third group. They tend to take more time to consider adopting new innovations and is usually inclined to draw from feedback from early adopters before taking the risk of purchasing a new product or system. The late majority. These are the people that adopt the innovation after it's already been established in the marketplace, and it's seldom willing to take risks with new innovations. And then there's the laggards. These are the last to adapt on innovation. They tend to prefer traditions and are usually unwilling to take risks. So we're looking at this in terms of shopping patterns, and we think about the different types of consumers. When I think of innovators, they usually think of celebrities on. And then we think of, um, the early adapters. Early majority. I think of influencers in the media, and then that late majority is usually the mass public. That's when you know you've hit peak, and then the laggards are when products are kind of starting to phase out, and those are usually the people that are the last to make a purchase. So when we're looking at this concept as it relates to the fashion cycle, and this all relates back to kind of like purchasing patterns in, consumers were looking at the different stages. So typically there's the innovation stages right at the beginnings of the introduction and the rise of the product. And then there's the culmination stages where you're starting to see acceleration, popularity and then mass acceptance of the products on. Then you're seeing the decline stages, and that's typically you'll see a decline and then obsolescence where ah product is phased out. Another theory that I think is really important to look at is the trickle up and trickle down theory. First, we're going to talk about trickle down, so in this model a stylist first offered and adapted by people at the top of society, and then it gradually becomes accepted by those and the lower rungs of society. This distribution model assumes that there is a social hierarchy where people are seeking toe, identify with the affluent, and those at the top seat both distinction and then eventually distance from those socially below them. So, as we discussed earlier, this idea of fashion becoming more democratized, the reality is that this theory is still in play. We see it often with celebrity and the dubious social influencers on social media like the Kardashians. And once the fashion is adopted by those below via fluent, then reject those ideas and start to look for another. The trickle up theory is the second they're gonna look at. It's one of the newest of the fashion movement theories, and in this theory the innovation is essentially initiated and inspired by the lower rung in society by street, where it's essentially adapted from lower income groups and the innovation eventually is said to flow upward to the upper income groups. Thus, the movement is from the bottom up, with the impact of social media and the Internet. As I've said before, fashion has truly become democratized. Therefore, we're seeing more and more of the trickle up effect happening. There is some controversy to keep in mind, though it's no secret. The designers in fashion lovers, as well as retailers and marketers alike, tend to borrow pieces from cultures that have been historically marginalized, um, to give an idea, a sense of uniqueness or depth. But I really, truly believe that it's important to realize the impact and be respectful and cognizant of this as transparency and accessibility has become a hugely important topic to consumers today. 7. Fashion Trend Research & Analysis: Now that we understand how the fashion trend cycle works, let's talk more about how to follow it. Forecasting research looks for cultural drift, directional pointers for the way society is moving and relates that information back to a brand so that they essentially can make stronger buying or design decisions. The company needs a picture of potential matches between the company's line and consumer expectations. That's where forecasting comes into play. What are the consumers expectations for the brand? What are the most desirable attributes of products in this category? What exciting or surprising attributes of the product or brand will attract consumers. Initially, these are all questions that brands have to ask and that forecasters tend to try an answer . Forecast reports typically provide insights their valuable in evaluating current business strategies, indications that a business needs to reposition their products or the way that they're relating to their customers. They also provide input for a company strategic planning and essentially their backdrop for understanding any evaluating short term forecasting. Keep in mind knowing your customer is important. Retailers must understand who their customer is in order to meet their needs, their wants and their expectations, and a pair of manufacturer must be able to understand what characteristics their target market values the most, and in which priority this is where cycle graphics and demographics come into play. Essentially, the forecasters looking for shifts in demographics that can restructure society, changes in industry and market structure. Differences in consumer interests, values, motivations, breakthroughs in technology and science. And they're also looking for changes in the economic picture. Because all of these things can influence help people dress what they by how much money they have to spend. We're also looking for alteration in political, cultural and economic alliances between countries. Because when we think about this, the idea of transportacion imports exports. They all play into what people are buying when they're buying them and white, they're buying them. So when it comes to researching for forecasting, there's multiple strategies that you can use. But with the amount of time we have for this video, the main one that we're going to be focusing on is observation. So this strategy is essentially what it sounds like. Observing the world around you to pinpoint ideas and trends is a whole. Typically, this is done through research using media scans consumer scans and fashion scans. So immediate scan is essentially following the latest news. I know it sounds simple, but there's a lot of news out there. We're looking at it as well in relations in that only fashion but the global industry in the world as a whole, the industries often influenced by outside sources, including the economy, politics and culture. So staying up to date on news and events will keep you well informed and, in turn, allow you to see how these outside influences are impacting the fashion world as a whole. So what are some good resource is you ask. Let me give you some. The Wall Street Journal is a great one. Any national newspaper like The New York Times, the Tribune's any key trade papers, including things like Women's Wear Daily, Advertising Age, Fashion and Lifestyle magazine, such as Entertainment Weekly, Vogue and many, many others. And then also online. Resource is such as the business of fashion dot com and many more. I have a ton of links and resource is in the researches section of this class, so make sure you take a look and use some of those. Resource is as you're working on your class project. So a consumer scan is basically at the core of market research. It's the main component of that consumer scan. We're forecasting team conduct studies, off market conditions, current events, the arts, the people on cultural influences around them. Remember to always keep in mind the people when you're putting to gather your reports and when I say the people, I mean the customer. Ah, Consumer scan basically attempts that identify clusters of people who share characteristics . I, your target market. Those demographics that I was talking about earlier. And it's usually combined with demographics, lifestyle attitudes and behaviour, and it's used to determine a target market, and it could also be used to better understand your consumers behavior. So some resource is that you can use for consumer scans are basically just easily accessible. Secondary research resource is so online. White papers, The census. Um, anything that you can find online that relates to your industry could be really, really helpful and informative. Fashion scans are responsible for following the latest fashion news to further spot emerging lifestyle and fashion trends. Fashion scanning focuses mostly on color, textile and style forecasting, so whether you're researching online, using Instagram or attending Coachella and photographing looks, the idea is to hunt out emerging style trends. 8. The Trend Forecasting Process: So in the pre Internet world, the trend forecasting system was clearly defined. Fashion forecasters were usually found at runway shows, where designers and fashion houses would set the agenda with their designs than forecasters would decide which looks were the most important and would cause the biggest impact for their audience. And then these would be outlined in trend reports for their clients. Most often, those clients were chain and department stores who would then designed their collections or make buying purchases, according to that information. Then images would trickle down to the public through traditional media fashion magazines and 12 to 18 months after the magazines at the stands, retail versions of catwalk designs with then hit the street. So this was how things worked in the past for a very, very long time, and that is, until the Internet disrupted the industry as we know it, As I said before the Internets democratization of the industry, essentially over through many of the fashion gatekeepers, it flipped the top down ideology of the industry, the runway first model of fashion onto its head and pushed it toward a web of influencers. Yes, pun intended these influencers arranged from everyday people with blog's two teenagers on YouTube to the unexplored corners of Instagram, you don't need a powerful position at a fashion house or a magazine to influenced out today . Really, all you need is your iPhone and Internet access. What you will find is more and more trend. Forecasters are using social media to track trends. Instagram, Pinterest and Tumblr are great sources to see what is culturally trending when it comes to style. Researching websites and scouring the digital realms for interesting pulse basically, is how things are done today. But they also still look to everyday life visiting museums, shopping, outdoor markets worldwide, traveling the world for inspiration to find trends to bring back to the brand before key steps that I tend to use in the fashion forecasting model. Our hunt. Identify, gather and share. It's when you're hunting. You're researching your exploring. Maybe you're traveling. If you work for a major industry player who can afford to send you worldwide, or if you're an independent designer like me, you're scouring the Internet. You're going to different retailers to see what's out there currently, and you're just keeping your eyes open to the world around you. Then there is the identified phase. That's where your pinpointing key concepts and ideas that you see through your research repeating patterns. Um, really interesting and highly accepted influencers who are making an impact with certain looks and styles. Then you start to gather. You begin by pulling key information about the trends. Use imagery, visuals and color to start building out your ideas, pulling together fabric swatches, imagery of shaped silhouette and patterns to give your ideas basically like a physical form . This could be done digitally on mine, using a site like Pinterest or using photo shop or in designed to build out a digital trend board. Or it can be done traditionally creating physical trend boards or using power point presentations or physical presentations. Finally, you're sharing your sharing your information. You're presenting your findings and either a digital or traditional format. If you are working in the industry as a forecaster, you'll often have trend forecasting presentations that you have to give every quarter to the buyers and merchandisers that you're working with, Um, or if you work for a major player like WG Asan, you're releasing ideas weekly, Um, and also relating those ideas and those releases to the actual fashion market calendar. So typically, this process requires months of research before the next season, when researching and forecasting you will usually either be doing long term forecasting or short term for casting. Long term forecasting is trying to find out what will be taking place within the next five plus years, and short term forecasting is basically looking at will be taking place in the next 1 to 5 years once you've got all of your research done. Typically, that presentation is really important. So I wanted to share some presentation techniques that I've used in the past. Um, and once you've completed all of your research, you can utilize thes and I'll share some additional resource is as well in the researches section, with links to some mood boards that you can use on Can va ous well, azi other options that you can pull together. So there's the traditional way to do things. And then, of course, the digital weight of the things Ah, and most of the colleges that I work at I'm teaching both traditional is usually the tact out trend boards, like actually physically cutting out images from magazines, taking real life fabric swatches and gluing it on a beautiful trend board. You also can do power points and physical presentations, pulling in actual products. Many of the retailers that I've worked within the pastor in my corporate time. They did a combination of all three of these things. They'll bring in trend boards and then physical items to the presentation so you can touch and feel and see where they were bringing their inspiration from on. A lot of this is based on bio trips as well as forecasting trips that they did globally. Then there's the digital side of things. Typically, I like to use in design or photo shop on, and then you're exporting them to Adobe. Pdf. So and then you're also finding more more retailers, and more and more fashion forecasting firms are turning to video and film. YouTube has surged in popularity and utilizing that as one additional way to get their information out to the masses has been really, really important. YouTube videos air now being used to showcase trends in modern ways to connect with a whiter audience and that global market so typically companies like W gee Asan, they'll combine striking visuals along editorial style descriptions to highlight fashion trends. Interview designers interview influencers in the market as well to kind of bring these really interesting video formatted trend forecasts to their public. 9. Final Thoughts & Canva Tutorial: fashion forecasting is an essential part of the fashion industry brands wanting to know that what they're selling is going to connect with their consumers. And forecasters play a large role that some might say, though, that the conglomerate way of forecasting to the Masri sailors is kind of taking the magical way from retail. But personally, I think it would be a really helpful way to guide the direction of your Brander line as an indie creative I often used for casting as a method to research my service pattern design collections. And this helps we have a solid foundation for the creative direction that I take my work in . I hope this course gave you some insider information and open your eyes to the creative world around you. Now it's your turn to do your own forecast. I wanted to keep things simple, so you will only have to forecast based on the trickle theories. In the next video, I will go over how to use the course project template on Can Va. Make sure you posit this section really quick and sign up for a free can of account before you watch the last video. Remember to share your forecast to the Project gallery for your class project. We will be applying forecasting methods by exploring the trickle up and trickle down theories. This will be completed using the camp, a template that have provided in the class materials. The purpose behind this assignment is to showcase his theory at play in the real world, as well as to get you to sharpen your eye to trans on the street and in your research work . You will review three key runway trends and show how they are executed in street style. Then you're gonna show me three street style trends and then show how they're being executed on the runway. Essentially, I want you to find three examples of trends that would be considered the trickle up theory by highlighting a runway look and then finding corresponding images that showcase the look in street. Where then I want you to find three additional examples of trends that would be considered the trickle down theory by highlighting a street where look and then finding the corresponding images that show that look on the runway wants you to include images of each one so canvas air really intuitive online platform. It's really simple to use to make things even simpler have created this template for the class project, and all it requires is for you to update the tax on dragon drop images. So before you start, make sure you had over to Campbell dot com, create a free account, and then I want you to log into that account and then click on the class Project template link that have shared in the class. Resource is list. You will be taken to a pop up with our project title fashion trends for classed at it. You will then select use template. If you get a pop up that allows you to pick that that way it will create a copy of everything over Jor camp account. And if you don't, then you can just create a copy. Once you've opened up the file by selecting file on, then great copy. The whole purpose of this is so that you don't add it. The original file that I've created now that we're in Canberra, I want to get you used to the interface. So we will go over some of the menu items in the upper left hand corner there are home options and file options there. You can save you margins. Create a new design, make a copy, find help topics for using the platform as well. And then on the right hand side, you can share your file with others for review as well. Aziz Download If you click on the downward pointing arrow or if you hit present, you can present directly from the online platform. You are able to access thousands of templates on the left hand side by clicking templates, and there's so money with a variety of styles, from right and funky, too minimal and modern. You can also find a variety of free images and elements on the left hand side as well. If you need to create a mood board, you confined a great variety of photos here. Online as well as other resource is that I have included in your resource is PdF. You can include different frames and grids for image layouts to add to your templates as well as a variety of clip art to add some flair to your visuals. You can also add tax by selecting the text tool on the left hand side as well belittle the text tool. There's also background options. There's a variety of solid color and visual element backgrounds. One of the most important areas that you will be using to revise the template is the uploads, so that you could add images that you find online. Keep in mind copyright issues if you plan on sharing your work online. But for the sake of this project, you're able to use imagery that you search for online as it's for personal and educational . You added the tax. All you have to do is place your cursor into the text box and then update the paragraph or header with the information of your choice. To place your images into the grit, you'll need to find your images first. By completing a fashion scan. Using online resource is to find images. You can complete a simple Google search. Use Pinterest. Visit a site like vogue dot com or, of course, use any of the resource is that I've shared. Once you find your images to compare and discuss that, then you will need upload them to camera, click on the uploads options on the left hand toolbar, select the teal, upload an image button, then find your image and select it and hit open. Once it's uploaded, you can click on the image of your choice in the uploads gallery, and it will load into your template page. Once it's loaded on your page. You will then have to click on the image and drag it into your template image grid, and then it'll snap right into the frame to revise the crop of the image. You just need a double click on it, and then you will be able to move the placement. That way it shows the part of the image that you want to show. Once you're done updating, please download your design in a pdf format, and then you can upload it to the class Project Forum. Feel free to leave. Some feedback for your classmates is well, I'm excited to see what trickle up and trickle down theory trends you share in your report . Thank you so much for learning with me