Trend Forecast like an Expert! Part One: The Anatomy of Trends | Gabby Mastronardo | Skillshare

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Trend Forecast like an Expert! Part One: The Anatomy of Trends

teacher avatar Gabby Mastronardo

Watch this class and thousands more

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Taught by industry leaders & working professionals
Topics include illustration, design, photography, and more

Watch this class and thousands more

Get unlimited access to every class
Taught by industry leaders & working professionals
Topics include illustration, design, photography, and more

Lessons in This Class

12 Lessons (17m)
    • 1. Introduction

    • 2. Classifying Trends

    • 3. Curve of Innovation Diffusion

    • 4. Class Project: Part 1

    • 5. Innovators

    • 6. Early Adapters

    • 7. The Critical Mass

    • 8. Early Majority

    • 9. Late Majority

    • 10. Laggards

    • 11. Start Analyzing Your Trend: 4 Key Questions

    • 12. Class Project: Part3

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About This Class

Do you want to know the consumer trends before they hit the market so you can increase your market share and revenue? Then this course is for you! This is the first part of a series of classes that will make you an expert and identifying and tracking trends. 

I am Gabrielle Mastronardo, a trend forecaster and creative strategist living and working in Berlin Germany. I will be your teacher. In this class, you will learn what a trend is, how to categorize it, and how to use the curve of innovation diffusion and adaptor mindsets in trend forecasting, as well as the starting steps for Trend Analysis.  

If you like this class don't forget to subscribe to be notified when the next is published. Part Two will be focused on the beginner's guide to trend analysis going over the who, what, when, and where of trend analysis as well as the trend forecasters "tool kit". 

Meet Your Teacher

Gabrielle is a Trend Forecaster & Creative Strategist. She helps brands navigate the future. By monitoring shifts in culture, industry developments, and changing values in society. 

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1. Introduction : Hello, everyone, and welcome to my class. I'm Gabrielle Master Nardo. And this is trend forecast like an expert part one, the and out of me of trends. This is the first part to an ongoing Siri's, and in this class we will learn all about how to classify a trend as well as how to use the curve of innovation. Diffusion. In June, forecasting your class project will be to identify a current trend as well as place it on the curb of innovation diffusion and speculate about where it's headed. I hope you enjoy the first part to this Siri's Let's get started. 2. Classifying Trends : So let's dive right in. What is a trend? Well, the dictionary definition says that it's a change or development in a general direction. So with that being said, trend forecasting, then is linking what's happening or changing in culture today, toe what are needs or wants will be in the future. We categorized trends in two ways, macro and micro. A macro trend is defined as a major shift in human behaviors that will dictate our environment in the long term. In simpler terms, these air the trends that create change on a larger cultural and sidle scale with long lasting effects. Micro trend is to find a specific shifts in human behavior that changes our environment in the short term or, in other words, changes that a vector, everyday decision making and behaviors. Let's look at the macro trend conscious capitalism. This is a macro trend that evolved out of our mindset, shifting around corporate social responsibility, particularly looking at the impact that businesses make and who is responsible for offsetting that impact to micro trends that have direct correlation with the macro trend of conscious capitalism are civic brands and waste as raw materials. Civic brands refers to the movement of brands taking a stance for social and political movements. You see more and more that customers actually expect brands to share their values and what they stand for, and they're shopping only with friends that their values align with wasters. Raw materials refers to the efforts to look at waste in a new way, which is basically taking things that we would normally throw away and transforming them into raw materials to create new products. With the first instances, we saw this with Adidas and their parlay ocean waste collection that they did in partnership with Stella McCartney. And now Nike has followed suit, creating their space hippie collection that is made completely from waste materials from their factories, so materials that would normally just be discarded were transformed into these new sneakers . And outside of the sportswear industry, we have seen industrial designers and architecture firms starting to pick up on this trend as well, which is a good sign that this trend is gonna continue to grow. So now that we know how to categories trends, let's look at the first step in tracking them. We do this by placing them on the curve of innovation diffusion, which we will talk about in our next video 3. Curve of Innovation Diffusion: So in the previous video, we talked about how to identify trends and categorize them from macro to micro. But now let's look at how a trend develops. We do this using the curve of innovation diffusion, which is actually two curves. So we have the bell shaped curve and the S curve. The bell shaped curve is showing us the sequence of adaptation. We know that trends are not adapted by everyone at the same time, and they follow a very similar sequence across all trends. And that is shown by these five different category groups that you see along the baseline, starting with innovators than early adopters, early majority, late majority and neck hurts. That s shaped curve, on the other hand, is showing us the speed that a trend is adapted at. So you can see that at the beginning, in the innovators or early adapters stages, the trend is gonna move pretty slow. Then when it gets into the early majority or late majority, it speeds up and then again SOS down at the records. So on some of the speed for the S shaped curve, we also concede the amount of market share that has been filled by this trend, so as it gets further along, it will get closer and closer to 100% market share, and so that can help businesses understand if they want to jump into this trend or not. So in conclusion, the bell curve is showing us the adapter makeup sequencing, and the S curve is showing us the speed of adaptation. In the next video, we will get to know each of the adapter makeups individually and some of the characteristics that make them unique to each other. 4. Class Project: Part 1: So the first thing we're gonna do for our class project is identify a trend, and at this point, you should be able to answer all of these points. So first thing you do is identify a current trend could be any trend in any industry. Just identify what that trend is, and then also, if it is micro or macro. If it is a macro trend, what are some of the micro trump's stemming from it? And if it is a micro trend, what is the bigger macro trend around it? Understanding what what current trends are now can help you or see what this trend will become in the future. This is a great exercise to get yourself started. So write down the answers to these questions, and you can also collect a few photos around this trend to really prove your points of why it's macro or micro and what the smaller trends might be coming from it. Or what is its larger, bigger macro trend 5. Innovators: So in the last video, we talked about the curve of innovation diffusion, and now we're gonna dive deep into each of the adapter mindsets before we get started on diving into these. I just want to point out that these are just ideal mindsets, and it is not same across trends. So what does stay constant is the rough percentages and the the types. But a person can be an innovator in one trend and a late majority in another. With that being said, that's dive in. The innovators are one of the smallest but most important groups for turn forecasters to observe. And that's because, as the name suggests, they're keen on making change. As we saw in the first video. Trends are change or development in a general direction, which means innovators are the group that initiate most fronts. The innovators are not afraid to take risks, and because of this, they tend to be pretty singular in their vision. Unlike any of the other adapter categories, the innovators don't need to see someone else doing at first because innovators air so singular in their vision. Sometimes their ideas don't stick, and that's normally because in their communication, they don't put enough emphasis on the value of their idea. The idea is that tend to stick in the mind of the next category, which is the earlier doctors are ones where there simplified and easy to understand. And the value that they bring for these individuals is clear. If you're interested in the topic of sticky ideas and learning more about why some idea stick and some others don't, which is a very important thing to understand. If you're interested in turn forecasting, there's a book I can highly recommend called May to stick, and I'll link it in the class notes. In the next lesson, we will take a deeper look at the second group in the curve of innovation diffusion, the early adopter. 6. Early Adapters: The second group that we're going to talk about is the early adopters, So this is another relatively small group, but also a very important group for turn forecasters to keep an eye on. That's because they take the ideas or the trends that innovators come up with, and they evolve them so that they're relevant for the overall masses. So they get the trends ready for what is called the critical mass or jumping the chasm. Very popular term for it as well is the tipping point. So from where a trend moves from the trendsetters, which is the innovators and the early adopters to the majority of people. So the early majority late majority and then the laggards and they can do this because they're progressive in their mindset and they want to be on the cutting edge. Their social currency as a group is having the latest products or ideas or knowing about things before others. Because of this, they tend to be the opinion leaders in society. So they are naturally communicators, and they share their ideas. And because of this, they gain a trusted following and inevitably become the go to people for the majority to look to before adopting a trend or an idea in the next video. We're going to go a little bit deeper into what the critical mass is and how a trend can hit critical mass. It's a very important part for the life of a trend and understanding how long a trend could last. 7. The Critical Mass: in the last video, we talked about the early adopters and how they have a unique position that falls right before a trend can hit critical mass. Now I'd like to dive deeper into what critical mass is because it's a very important point in the trends Lifecycle. So, as I said in the previous video, Critical Mass, is also known as the two big point. And it's where the trend crosses from the trendsetters so that innovators and the early adopters into the majority. It's an important topic because a trend hitting critical mass is harder than you would think. The trend needs to evolve and shipped to be adapted by the majority. And that's because the mindsets between the early adopters and the majority are very different. The critical mass could be a huge speed indicator for a trend. So if a trend is still in the phase of the early adapters, you can expect a little bit of a block there before it gets before it gets adapted into the majority and becomes mainstream when they do that. John, to these ideas, we have another speed indicator there that it's going to really accelerate and kind of work as a domino effect, and we'll talk about why that is in the next video when we go over the early majority. 8. Early Majority: in the last video, we talked about the critical mass. Now we're gonna look deeper at the early majority. So a quote that describes the early majority perfectly is one by Alexander Pope in an essay on criticism and, it says, be not the first by whom the new is tried nor the last to lay the old aside. This fits them perfectly because they tend to be a little bit more deliberate in their decision making, and they take their time to decide if there's a trend that they want to adapt into their lives because they make up 1/3 of the population. They are a majority group, and they have a very unique mindset. They do take interest in new things. They aren't immediately turning their backs on the new, but they are a little skeptical in the way that they don't want to be the first to adapt it . They want to see how it's being used by other people and really mitigate their risks in taking on trend. And forecasters are interested in this group not for forecasting trends, but to understand how a trend needed to morph and change to hit the critical mass As we said in the last video, the early majority is when the critical mass is hit and it's hit that tipping point. And then that's when it shifts into the early majority. But in order to hit the critical mass, tried normally needs to shift and change and morph orbit before it's taken on by this early majority. So forecasters are then going to look at what changes needed to be made in order for them to take it on in the next video, we'll look at the late majority and how a trend looks when it's being diffused into the late majority. 9. Late Majority: in the last video, we talked about the early majority, who is the first half of the two majority segments. And in this video, we're gonna look at the late majority group, takes a while to adopt a trend and only does so with lots of reassurance and explanation about how it will work. And even then they do it in a water down style. They adopt a trend not necessarily because they personally like it, but rather to keep up with social norms. Since they are governed by these social norms, they will also drop a trend really quickly if if it goes out of favor by the majority, as the group makes up 1/3 of the population, the trends in this segment are considered mainstream. By this point, over 50% of the market has already adopted the trend. These air the trends which make up popular culture and are easily spotted and tend to be where large brands focused their efforts the most. As always, it's important for forecasters to observe how the trend has changed as it's been adopted by this category, and in particular it's important for forecasters to observe it. This new trend has replaced any old trends. This is important because it gives you an idea of the way societal norms are developing as well as if this trend will be moving into the final stage of the diffusion process, the laggards, or if it will never move into this stage, and we will look more in depth at who the Lakers are in the next video. 10. Laggards: the final group is the laggards. They are the SOS to adopt new trends as they tend to be more conservative than any of the other groups. The value things that are traditional, familiar and tested for forecasters is Group gives us a clear indication that the trend has flatlined and that there's new ideas emerging somewhere along the curve. Besides being an indicator for the end of the road for the trends diffusion process, the way the laggards embrace the trend creates the new baseline that the next set of ideas will be judged upon. So now that you know all of the adapter mindsets, you should be able to place a trend on the curve of innovation diffusion. So with that being said, if we go back to your class project now, I would like you to take the trend that you had originally spotted and place it on to the curve of innovation. Diffusion. Do your best took place it from what we've learned in the past lessons. In the next lesson, we will go through four questions that will help get us started with the analysis of where the trend is so that we can be more confident in where we're placing the trend on the curve of innovation. Diffusion 11. Start Analyzing Your Trend: 4 Key Questions : in this video, we're gonna take a look at four questions to get you started with trend analysis so injured in forecasting there are no definite answers. And that's because for the future there is no definite outcome. So what we're doing here with these four questions is getting the ideas flowing to see what the possibilities are for the future and what they could look like. So, starting with question number one, where is the trend now? This question is very important to start with, because in order to understand where trend could go, it is very important to understand where it is now. That's why the previous topic for the class assignment was to put the trend that you had selected on the curve of innovation. Diffusion. If you're having troubles with this question, there's a few things you can do to understand where the trend is now. And one of the key things is to look and see who's talking about this trend or if there are people talking about it, or any topics that have to do with it, and then looking at who those people are in deciding which category thes people fall into on the curve of innovation diffusion. Another key insight is if brands and companies have started adopting this trend into their communication styles, then we know that it's somewhere in the majority. And when we look at these things, we need to also see how long has this been going on? Because that gives us an idea of how far it is in the diffusion process as well. And if it's pretty far into it, we need to look back and see if there's something new emerging. Once we have that figured out, we can understand then what its potential is, so that really carries off of how long has it been going on? If it is just starting and the trend hasn't even hit critical mass yet, so there's only a little bit of communication coming out about this trend, and you're just starting to see little Sprinkles of it. Then this trend has a lot of potential to move forward, and then you need to think about If it hasn't hit critical mass yet, what is its potential to hit the critical mass? And to do this? We go to the next question and we think about what will need to change. So as we saw earlier in the videos, one of the key aspects of critical mass is that the trend does need to change and evolve a bit for the majority to take it on. And so you need to think about if it's just purely a mindset change that needs to happen. And if that is, you can outline what minds that needs to change. And what could cause this to change. And is that even a possibility? Or it could also be something that needs to change in legislation, which then would be something much bigger and harder to change, of course. So these are all the things you need to speculate and start thinking about when you're thinking about how a trend will evolve in the future, then we can understand how fast it will spread. So if our answers to question number three were just mindset questions and it seems like this is something that's already changing in the mind of people, then you can you can say that this trend will probably spread pretty fast, But if its legislative things that need to change, then you can expect it to move slow because it's on the government, and as most governments work, it's pretty slow moving. So then you have to take into consideration that this trend will be moving a little bit slower. And once we have the answer to all of these questions, it should be pretty clear where this trend is and what its path is looking like. So going back to the curve of innovation diffusion, you should be able to pinpoint on the curve where the trend is and be able to speculate a few scenarios for how this trend could evolve in the future. 12. Class Project: Part3: for the last part of your class project, you're going to outline where the trend you have selected is going. So using the four questions that we outlined in the last video, you should be able to create a little trend thesis of where this trend could be headed in the future.