Consulting Bootcamp: Key learnings to boost your career | Omar Abdo | Skillshare

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Consulting Bootcamp: Key learnings to boost your career

teacher avatar Omar Abdo

Watch this class and thousands more

Get unlimited access to every class
Taught by industry leaders & working professionals
Topics include illustration, design, photography, and more

Watch this class and thousands more

Get unlimited access to every class
Taught by industry leaders & working professionals
Topics include illustration, design, photography, and more

Lessons in This Class

84 Lessons (2h 31m)
    • 1. M1 01

      0:33
    • 2. M1 02

      3:52
    • 3. M1 03

      5:44
    • 4. M2 01

      0:23
    • 5. M2 02

      0:24
    • 6. M2 03

      3:15
    • 7. M2 04

      4:05
    • 8. M3 01

      1:43
    • 9. M3 02

      7:49
    • 10. M3 03

      1:45
    • 11. M3 04

      0:48
    • 12. M3 05

      1:42
    • 13. M3 06

      2:20
    • 14. M3 07

      0:12
    • 15. M3 08

      2:51
    • 16. M3 09

      0:37
    • 17. M4 01

      0:33
    • 18. M4 02

      1:38
    • 19. M4 03

      5:00
    • 20. M4 04

      2:52
    • 21. M4 05

      0:29
    • 22. M4 06

      2:18
    • 23. M4 07

      2:24
    • 24. M4 08

      3:00
    • 25. M4 09

      0:19
    • 26. M4 10

      4:06
    • 27. M4 11

      1:50
    • 28. M4 12

      1:41
    • 29. M4 13

      0:27
    • 30. M4 14

      3:28
    • 31. M4 15

      0:24
    • 32. M4 16

      1:09
    • 33. M4 17

      1:00
    • 34. M4 18

      2:16
    • 35. M4 19

      0:14
    • 36. M4 20

      0:41
    • 37. M4 21

      2:43
    • 38. M4 22

      0:16
    • 39. M4 23

      0:33
    • 40. M4 24

      2:34
    • 41. M4 25

      1:45
    • 42. M4 26

      0:25
    • 43. M4 27

      1:11
    • 44. M4 28

      6:31
    • 45. M4 29

      0:37
    • 46. M4 30

      0:15
    • 47. M4 31

      0:28
    • 48. M4 32

      1:02
    • 49. M5 01

      1:12
    • 50. M5 02

      1:34
    • 51. M5 03

      0:53
    • 52. M5 04

      0:26
    • 53. M5 05

      0:10
    • 54. M5 06

      4:37
    • 55. M5 07

      0:17
    • 56. M5 08

      0:36
    • 57. M5 09

      0:36
    • 58. M5 10

      0:42
    • 59. M5 11

      3:05
    • 60. M5 12

      1:41
    • 61. M5 13

      1:46
    • 62. M5 14

      3:05
    • 63. M5 15

      1:23
    • 64. M5 16

      4:57
    • 65. M5 17

      0:22
    • 66. M5 18

      1:44
    • 67. M5 19

      0:08
    • 68. M5 20

      1:07
    • 69. M5 21

      0:58
    • 70. M5 22

      0:21
    • 71. M5 23

      0:53
    • 72. M5 24

      0:04
    • 73. M5 25

      2:08
    • 74. M5 26

      0:55
    • 75. M5 27

      4:54
    • 76. M5 28

      2:27
    • 77. M5 29

      2:26
    • 78. M5 30

      0:58
    • 79. M5 31

      3:18
    • 80. M5 32

      1:24
    • 81. M5 33

      2:06
    • 82. M5 34

      0:51
    • 83. M5 35

      1:07
    • 84. M6 01

      3:34
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About This Class

Learn the key skills you'd obtain from spending years at a top management consulting firm such as McKinsey, BCG and Bain

Alumni of those firms are highly sought after for their skill-set. Now you can benefit from this steep learning curve and put yourself ahead of the curve!

This course is highly interactive:

  • You'll follow Tom, an ambitious young professional looking to excel in his first assignment.
  • Work with him to solve a challenging and far-reaching issue.
  • Find a way to break down the problem and structure the work. 
  • Carry out a laser-focused analysis using Excel.
  • Build an impressive and to-the-point PowerPoint presentation.

At the end of the course, you'll be able to:

  • Manage projects and deliver exceptional results in significantly less time than ever before.
  • Structure and break-down problems effectively
  • Build quantitative models
  • Convince management with powerful and to-the-point presentations.

Professionally animated and narrated, interspersed with a multitude of quizzes and exercises, the learnings from this course are designed to click & stick. 

Take your career to the next level!

Taught by two seasoned ex-BCG consultants.

Meet Your Teacher

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Omar Abdo

Teacher

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In October 2018, we updated our review system to improve the way we collect feedback. Below are the reviews written before that update.

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Transcripts

1. M1 01: Congratulations. You have just landed a job as the new aid to the senior senator of your home state. This is the first step towards a long and successful career in politics, something you've been dreaming about since you were in junior high. The senator is a very busy man and has allocated just five minutes of his time to welcome you. You nervously sign in with his secretary, and after some waiting, you are let into his office. 2. M1 02: The balding man sits behind his desk, and the moment you enter, you can sense his charisma and presence. He looks at you with his piercing eyes. Ralph, Good toe. Have you here? I trust you have had a good on boarding and are up to speed with everything. You haven't had any on boarding and still don't know where Your desk iss Still you say yes , sir, nervously and assure him that everyone has been very welcoming and that you are eager to start working. He already has a first task for you. Look, graph. As you know, the Z 20 virus is the biggest issue facing the US today. It's the only thing everybody is talking about these days. We've tried everything and still can't halt this disease from spreading. I don't know the latest figures, but they're bad. We're actually considering taking quite extreme steps to halt this disease. Right now, nothing else seems to work. If it continues at this pace, millions of new infections will occur by the end of the decade. I had an interesting conversation with the CEO of Tri Pharmaceuticals yesterday. She's a very good friend of mine. Julie says her company has developed a unique new test for C 20. The accuracy level is through the roof. You get the results almost immediately and it costs less than a dollar per test. Now, this gave me an idea that I wanna have investigated. Why don't we just test the whole damn population and get it over with? Anyone who test positive will be shipped off to an island somewhere. Anyone who test negative can stay right here in the U. S. A. Of course, this is only transitional. Once we get the antidote right, we'll be able to cure the disease carriers so they can return to their families. Think of it as a quarantine. And Ralph don't come back to me with that same old argument that this would be unethical in yada, yada, yada. I can't hear that anymore. My wife is giving me that talk at home already. These are extraordinary times and they call for extraordinary measures and don't spend much time figuring out the logistics and the economics of the whole thing. Just assume we can get everyone tested quickly and at a reasonable cost, and we can get them shipped off to the island without much opposition. I also don't want to hear about far fetched effects on the economy because of the loss of labor force again extraordinary times, Ralph. What I want to know is whether executing this plan will in fact slow the spread of this friggin disease. What we're looking for is a significant decrease of the number of new infections versus the current course. We're on everything else we can figure out afterwards. We expect to be able to get an antidote in the coming years. However, it is still unclear when exactly it will be ready. Once we have the antidote, we will be able to vaccinate everyone and end this thing once and for all. But again, till we get the antidote right, whenever that is, it is pivotal to find a way to decrease the number of new infections. And I think my approach conduce just that. Have a memo with the results of your analysis on my desk by Thursday. Now I'll have to ask you to leave. The president is expecting me on a conference call. Have a nice day. You blurt out Thank you, sir, and turn around to leave the room. That was a lot to take in. You tell yourself just when you were about to close the door. The senator has one last comment for you. Oh, Ralph, Nothing I just said leaves this room. If this gets leaked to the press, it can get uncomfortable for me and you really quickly. 3. M1 03: Okay, That was a lot of information to take in dissent. Your head straight. You sit down at an empty desk down the hall from the senator's office, take a sheet of paper and trying to piece together the meeting you just had. But somehow you're blowing blanks, fumbling with your pencil. Your mind keeps wandering back to that meeting. Why did the senator keep calling me Ralph? You wonder. That's not even close to Tom, and you didn't even have the courage to correct him. You'll have to deal with that at a later time. Quite an unconventional idea. The senator has their shipping people infected with Z 20 to 1 island. It feels like the logistical issues alone would make it impossible to work. And how would people react to such an idea? Surely there will be over a bowl or at least a strong backlash. And then there's the whole ethical dimension. All in all, you have strong reservations about this proposal. Still, he was quite clear about what he wants to have analyzed and that explicitly doesn't include any of your reservations. Nonetheless, you are keen to find out whether such an extreme approach actually works like he says, and would really reduce the number of new Z 20 infections. You need to get this memo done by Thursday. This gives you just two days. Quite a tall order for such a short period of time as you attempt to return to the blank piece of paper in front of you to write down your notes. You see the senator walking towards you next to him is a striking business lady intensively talking to the senator. Ralph my boy. How is your project coming along? Before you answer, he introduces his companion. This is my good friend Julie, CEO of Tri Pharmaceuticals. Julie, meet RZ 20 Specialist Ralph. Okay, so you are officially Ralph. Now you think to yourself it will be hard to come back from that. And you are suddenly a Z 20 specialists as well. Yet you don't really know anything about this disease so far. Nice to meet you, Ralph. You know it is true. Z 20 is all everyone is talking about these days. And it's a strange disease. Easily transmittable people carrying the disease don't show any symptoms under normal circumstances, however, every so often they start sleepwalking at night. and when they do, it always ends bad. They vandalize their homes and neighborhoods. Sometimes they even get aggressive and attack passers by, especially those without the disease. After a couple of hours, they returned home and go back to sleep the next morning. They remember nothing. The media obviously, is all over this writing about a zombie apocalypse. Of course, this is a bit exaggerated, but I have to admit there are some parallels. During their nocturnal journeys. The Z 20 carriers faces become so distorted that it is impossible to identify them. This is another issue of C 20. Most people who have the disease don't even know they have it. One thing is clear, however. The disease is spreading fast on those so called zombies are terrorizing local communities . No one really understands what triggers a zombie attack, as people have come to call them. Ah, lot of theories were proposed from drinking lemon juice to stress at work, but that's just it. They are theories without any scientific foundation, because the disease is invisible most of the time and only triggered maybe once or twice a month. It is quite hard to understand the fact that the disease carriers don't even know they are infected. Doesn't help either. The senator must have talked to you about this new test we're developing. It is really something. First studies indicate a 96% accuracy level. Can you believe that? I talked to the senator about his island idea, which sounded a bit too maverick at the beginning, I have to say, But now that I've thought about it, it is actually quite brilliant. The US has 320 million people and the number is expected to remain relatively unchanged for the foreseeable future. Almost 6.4 million are infected with Z 20. That's 2%. If we can bring that number down to less than 0.1% then it would be easy to contain the disease within our current infrastructure. I think Try pharmaceutical could help with that, don't you? Then all we have to do is wait for the antidote, which we are also working on a try Pharmaceuticals. We still don't know when it will become available. It could be next year, but I think that would be overly optimistic. I'd say there is only a 10% chance of having an antidote by the end of next year. We had a panel of the biggest pharmaceuticals yesterday and talked about when people should count on an antidote. The consensus was that it was still very early to tell, but that it won't take us longer than 10 years to have an antidote fully ready for deployment. Once we have that, we will be able to quickly get rid of Z 20 entirely, and everything will go back to normal. Look, I need to get going now, but feel free to contact me if you have any questions. As you conduct your research, I'll be happy to help. Here's my business card. Have a nice day. The senator in Julie Turn and leave. You sit back down at your desk. It does make sense that Julie thinks the island quarantine approach is a good idea. In the end, her product is integral to it, and she'll end up with a formidable business if this gets implemented. While her opinion as an industry veteran is, of course important, you will have to come up with your own objective and data driven recommendation. It was kind of her to give you her contact information and offer to help. You are sure you will make use of that as your work progresses 4. M2 01: your first meetings with the senator and Julie have given you important information and insights. Still, everything feels a bit nebulous. You should write everything down, gather your thoughts and hone in on the underlying issue. You turn to a blank sheet of paper to summarize the key takeaways from the meetings you just had. 5. M2 02: take a few minutes to write down the main points from the meetings. Try to capture the most relevant statements that will be directional for your work. Also, try to organize those statements around common themes. Rather than just having a long list of statements. Feel free to go back to the first module to review the key sections as necessary. After you are done, download the sample solution and compare notes. 6. M2 03: at the beginning of any project, you will most probably be confronted with huge amounts of information as well as insights and opinions from multiple stakeholders. It can become a real challenge to get to the core of the issues. As a first step in structuring your thinking, we recommend using the time proven SC QS framework. It defines four categories in which to structure your notes. First, the original situation here we need to describe the overarching context of the project. For example, it could be that a company has been facing decreasing profit margins for multiple years now with no end in sight. In our case, it is a country that needs to deal with an infectious disease but still has no plan to combat it. Second, the complication. Why's the issue described in the situation being addressed now? The Z 20 epidemic has been around for some time now, and people have been trying to solve it unsuccessfully. However, circumstances changed in triggered your project. A new cheap and fairly accurate test is now available. Based on that, the senator has come up with the island quarantine approach. You are now tasked to review his proposal third the resulting target question. What is the key question that the project seeks to answer? In essence, all your activities within the project should converge towards answering this question. That is why it is pivotal tohave it formulated in a crystal clear way and to make sure all your key stakeholders are aligned on it. For a company facing decreasing profit margins, a good target question could be. Which measures should the company take to increase profits by 10%? Having a quantified target of 10% that is aligned with the stakeholder manages this expectation and helps you work towards a concrete objective. Always try to make your target question as clear and as precise as possible for our Z 20 Project will define the exact target question in a moment. Fourth, the scope. Here we can add any relevant piece of information that will frame our analysis, an outcome in our case. The senator clearly stated he wants no ethical or feasibility factors to influence the outcome. It is important to clearly state that in align it with the project stakeholders this way, we don't lose time on aspects that might be interesting to look at, but that are not relevant to the project scope. In the example of a company with declining profits, the CEO should mention that he will not consider any headcount reduction to increase profits. This significantly reduces the number of options we would have had to investigate without this input. As a result, your efforts will be spent with a laser like focus on the topics that really matter. We strongly advise you to take the time for this exercise whenever you are about to start a new task or project, any time spent upfront will be saved multiple times over later on. Also, remember that it is an iterative process with each iteration that you complete and discuss with your stakeholders. The issues and real objectives of any project will become clearer and more focused. The third category The target question is especially essential and ensuring your time and energy are invested in the right areas. Make sure you and all stakeholders have a common and clear understanding of what the ultimate target question is that your project seeks to answer. Also aim to make this question is clear, unambiguous and precise as possible 7. M2 04: now let's put the SC Qs framework to use in our project, starting with the situation. The first important statement here is that the Z 20 virus is one of the biggest problems in the US today. A figure that shows the magnitude of the problem is current infection rate. 2% of the 320 million population are already infected. Next, let's highlight how this virus actually affects local communities and neighborhoods. This shows how urgent the need for a solution is. People infected with Z 20 vandalized and terrorize their communities in so called zombie attacks, which happened once or twice a month. It is also important to mention why all attempts to contain the virus failed. So far, the disease is very hard to detect. Infected persons have distorted faces during the zombie attacks, which makes it pretty much impossible to identify them. Furthermore, these persons don't remember their nightly activities after waking up the next morning. Therefore, it is nearly impossible for disease carriers to know about their infection. Lastly, while scientists are already working on an antidote, most experts agree that there is only a 10% chance that one will be available in the next year. However, the consensus is that within 10 years an antidote is guaranteed to be available. This means that if we plan conservatively as we should, we need to assume that Z 20 will remain a challenge for the foreseeable future. Let's move on to the complication part of the SC QS framework. Multiple things happened that resulted in Tom being assigned to this new project. First, a new test for Z 20 is about to become available. It is, according to the senator, both cheap and accurate. This is a groundbreaking innovation enabling the identification of persons infected with C 20 second building. On the new test, the senator has come up with his island quarantine proposal. It is based on testing the entire U. S population and quarantining everyone testing positive on an island until an antidote becomes available onto the third component of the S E. Q s framework. The target question. What does the senator really want to know? He wants to know whether his proposal makes sense, and the only factor that counts for him is whether his proposal would decrease the number of new infections he feels the disease is spreading very quickly and people are panicking. The target question, therefore, is simple. Will the island quarantine proposal lead to a lower number of new infections compared to the current status quo? Note that the senators main goal is not to reduce the vandalism by removing the disease carriers from regular neighborhoods. Instead, his chief concern is reducing the number of new infections. The last category is scope. Is there anything that the senator explicitly wants to include or exclude for the project work? He specifically mentioned that he is not interested in ethical or feasibility issues. Therefore, we will exclude such factors from our analysis. With this, we're done summarizing and structuring our notes. Of course, this is only one of many good solutions. There are simply no perfect answers. There will always be something that you can add or take out. Still, the process of organizing your thoughts in these four categories is in itself very beneficial. It helps you think about what is really important and organize the scattered inputs you almost always receive at the beginning of a project into a structured framework. After you complete the four categories pressure, test your answers to them by asking yourself three questions. First, do they cover all the relevant issues? Reading your answers? Do they get a good grasp of the most important and relevant aspects of the project? Second, are they concise and factual? Make sure you use objective statements rather than opinions. Also, try to take out anything that is not important or relevant. Third, are they simple and easy to understand with an outsider, understand them without having been in the meetings. As you start to go deep into your analysis, you will learn to appreciate this simplicity. Now that we have completed the framework and feel we have a good grasp of the underlying issues, we can move on to structuring the project. Approach are notes from this section will build the foundation for the next module. 8. M3 01: minute in a minute. 6:30 a.m. You stare at your alarm clock, wondering if you slept at all last night. It felt like constant tossing and turning mixed with wild dreams about a guy called Ralph being fired from his job in the first week. What is going on with yourself? Something seems to be getting at you. Maybe it is the fact that you are tasked to save America and probably the world from this nauseated new disease. Quite a daunting task. You briefly yearn for the good old days of your previous job, where you just had to follow your boss's orders to the letter. This time, however, is different. You are in the driver's seat, getting up from your bed. You catch yourself saying aloud. Come on, Ralph, you can do this. Funny how quickly you adopted that new name you think to yourself while you put your vintage biladi coffeemaker on the stove with a strong cup of your favorite Italian roast, you sit down at your desk with a blank piece of paper and a pencil in your hand. Time to make a plan. Five minutes later, the white of the paper is still blatantly staring in your eyes, fumbling with your pencil. You are struggling to find out where and how to start. Then you remember Elvis Wiseman, one of your friends who claims he can break down any business problem with this fancy management consulting approach. Probably a good idea to get his thoughts on this, you think, and with the tap of your finger, you connect with him through face time on your iPhone. 9. M3 02: when he picks up, you see him walking at an airport. Tom, I am rushing to catch of flights. I have 10 minutes for you. What can I help you with explaining that you are working to solve a confidential government project and cannot share any details? Elvis cut you off. Well, I can teach you the approach, but you have to play yourself. The principles are always the same. And once you know them, you can take on any problem. Are you ready? You agree? Eager to take good notes of what Elvis is about to teach you. Often we management consultants get called in because we know how to break down problems. Logically, it actually is not that hard. But somehow, most people never seem to do it either because they don't know how or because they think it's not important. Well, you have to realize, however, is that taking time to structure your work ahead, conceive you literally hundreds of hours of work. In a year time, you can spend on getting more quality, work done or time off work. You will be just so much more successful. You tell Alvis that he should get to the point and stop boasting how successfully is I was just getting to this. We all have limited time to spend on each problem on in life in general, so you better put your work only into exactly those things that make the biggest difference . A good structure helps you to focus only on what is really key to answer. The problem you're trying to solve it eliminates all the rest the distractions that keep most people spinning their wheels for to effectively structure a problem. You should always use a so called driver tree to build one. Take a blank sheet of paper and write down the target question on the far left and put a box around it. This is what I call your level zero. For example. Your target question could be how to increase ive it by 20% next year. Note that the target question should be a specific and precise as possible. Pinning down what exactly you want to answer is always the first step. Take the time you need to do so. Next, Ask yourself which broad buckets make up the target question. Which components need to be looked at toe? Answer this question These are your level one drivers. In this example, broad buckets will be revenue and cost. Galvis pauses quickly to draw something on a napkin in front of him. When he's done, he holds it into his camera. Check this out. This is how it should look like, Can you see it? You ask him how you know whether you have the right level one drivers. And if there are multiple, different ways to answer a problem? Glad you asked Tom. While there is sometimes more than one way to structure a problem, you can make sure it is structured correctly by following the five rules of a bullet proof structure. Or as I call it, a B. P s. Are you ready to take notes? So here are my five bps rules. First, all drivers need to be direct drivers of the level above. This means there's all drivers need to be directly connected to the parent level. In our simple example here, direct drivers would be revenue and cost. Second, all drivers on one level need to belong together logically and be on the same flight level . Being confused, you ask him what he means by flight level part of my consultant talk. The flight level of a driver basically says how broad a driver is. For example, revenue and cost are the two broad categories that mathematically Dr Eve, it's These are your 10,000 feet flight level drivers. Number of units sold, on the other hand, would be a least one level below, say, 5000 feet, since it is already quite specific. Also, number of units sold does not satisfy the first bps rule. It is not a direct driver of profits because profit is measured in dollars, but number of units is not. You complete his sentence for him. Exactly. Way to go, Tom. Let me continue. The third bps rule is that all drivers on one level have to be mutually exclusive. This means that there must be no logical overlaps between the drivers. Let me expand on my example. We can develop our drivers tree one level further by drilling down revenue applying rule number one. What are the direct broad drivers of revenue? Well, we could start with number of units sold and average price per units. These drivers satisfy wrong number two as they are on the same flight level Also, there is no logical overlap between these two drivers. It starts to make sense to you. These drivers air totally independent of each other. They are mutually exclusive and therefore satisfy Rule number three. His rule number four. All drivers on one level need to be collectively exhaustive. This means that no additional drivers are missing to fully explain the level above. Let's take another look at our driver tree, this time on the cost side. What makes up the cost of this business again in broad buckets you could, for example, break it down into personal property, lease and utilities. If all costs in your business can be classified into these three categories, you're good to go. You chime in so the buckets are collectively exhaustive and rules three and four together. Make up the famous Emmy CE that consultants always talk about mutually exclusive collective . Exhaustive. Exactly. Now we have your driver tree. It takes the guesswork out of solving of projects. You will just need to answer the questions on the right most side of the driver tree, and then roll up your answers from right to left until you answer your target question on the very left. Let me quickly repeat the bps rules for you as they are so important. Make sure you take notes and memorize them. Well, first, all drivers need to be direct drivers off the level above seconds. All drivers on one level need to belong together logically and be on the same flight level . Third, all drivers on one level have to be mutually exclusive. Fourth, all drivers on one level need to be collectively exhaustive, you understand? And ask him about the fifth rule that he mentioned a smart boy for the last rule. You need to know one more thing. There are typically multiple right ways to develop such a driver tree with quite different results. For example, you could say the cost is driven by direct cost, an indirect cost. You were wondering whether this means that you have to build dozens of driver trees with all those different options. On the contrary, he should absolutely avoid having to build multiple driver trees. This is where experience and knowledge about the problem you are trying to solve come in handy. You need to have a rough idea of what the cornerstones of the solution could be. this helps you to develop some good hypotheses regarding how to structure the driver tree. This is what I'd call bps rule zero have a good hypothesis regarding the final solution of the problem. 10. M3 03: Maybe you already heard about hypothesis driven work in. It really helps you to figuratively speaking, lean your ladder against the right wall. You ask him how you could possibly come up with hypotheses when you have no clue at all, like in your current project for the senator. Don't worry about that. It is not necessary to be an expert in the field at first. Actually, it is sometimes helpful to not be an expert so that you can look at the problem in an unbiased way. You know, those guys who've spent 20 years at the same company, they are often blind to reality. You are doing it in a different way. Typically, you will spends 1 to 2 hours searching the Web about the topic to get a general understanding. Also, if you know someone in the field, you'll give them a call to get their take on the topic. All in all this should take a couple of hours maximum. Don't waste too much time. Then you jot down a list of hypotheses that you think could explain the target question. Next, you'll go through the list and circle the most likely hypotheses. If you work with others have everyone contribute their hypotheses, discuss them together and select the ones you think are most likely to be true in our situation. We could, for example, find on the Internet that many companies in the industry are struggling with increasing personnel costs. Therefore, the driver tree structure that you choose should include personnel costs as one of the branches. Let's quickly check if you have a good grasp of the BPS rules. What do you think we should put next to personal cost to fulfill the BPS rules? 11. M3 04: great job. You are a quick learner. Maybe you should. This is the final boarding call for Mr Alvis Weissman. Booked on flight. You a 934 to London Heathrow. Please proceed to gate 1 10 immediately. Sorry, Tom. By I gotta go. Let's catch up later. Good luck with your projects. You sigh with relief as the torrent of information coming out of Alice's mouth is put to an end. Pouring yourself another cup of coffee. You try to make sense of what Alvis just told you. His bulletproof structure or bps, as he calls it for sure sounds exactly like what you need. Now you quickly go over your notes to review the five bps rules. 12. M3 05: full of energy and drive to finally tackle the C 20 project. You said back down at your desk and fetch a blank sheet of paper on the very left side. You write down the target question. As Alvis told you to dio the target question you identified in the previous module is the following. Can we reduce the number of new Z 20 infections through an island quarantine as suggested by the senator? This is level zero of your driver tree. Next are the level one drivers. You pull out your notes that you put together after your meeting with the senator to review what you've learned so far. So the question really seems to be about comparing two scenarios. First, changing nothing in hoping that the antidote will be available soon to solve a problem. This is the baseline scenario. Second, putting the medical test to used in shipping off positively tested people to a quarantine island. Let's use the number of infections in these two scenarios, as are level one. Drivers note that in this case you already know quite much about the issue at hand. Therefore, it is easy for you to structure the approach this way in cases with less information available at the beginning, you need to follow the approach outlined by Elvis to first generate multiple hypotheses. Based on those hypotheses, you then select the most likely to succeed elements for your driver tree. Coming back to our example, you now just need to find a Level two drivers that explain each of these level one buckets . At this point, you don't really know what drives the number of infections. Therefore, it is now time to do your homework and research the workings of diseases like C 20. 13. M3 06: you flip open your laptop and start searching for infectious disease management. After scrolling through multiple websites telling you how to prevent STD infections well, in college, you finally stumble upon a publication of Harvard University's medical department. Researchers apparently found a way to forecast the spread of infectious diseases quite accurately. The researchers used a mathematical formula to predict the number of infections based on a few constants and assumptions. Looking at the formula, you noticed that it contains two disease specific values that remain constant over time. One is the infection constant letter C and the other is the spread coefficient letter s. These values cannot be controlled by the senator or anyone else in the world as they're merely describing the immutable characteristics of the disease itself. Later on, you will need to somehow find these numbers for the Z 20 disease to make the calculation. The formula also contains to other components the population size letter P and the starting infection rate letter. Are you realize that these are the two variables that the senator is able to control by implementing the quarantine measure by splitting the population into two groups with different sizes and starting infection rates. Looking at the chart on the right, you notice that the annual new infections are increasing exponentially with the proportion of already infected people at the beginning of the year. This reminds you of your family doctor's office. Sitting there during cold season pretty much makes you sick. Every time as everyone around you seems to be coughing, the higher the share of infected people in a room, the more likely it is that everyone else in that room will also get sick. Seems like this logic applies to infectious diseases in general. The publication also talks about a problem with testing people for diseases. Apparently, medical tests always produce a number of false positives and false negatives. This means that some people will test positive without being a carrier of the disease, while others will test negative despite carrying the disease. You decide to make a mental note of this problem for use later on. When you carry out your analysis 14. M3 07: coming back to our driver tree. Let's have a look at how we can use the insights from Tom's research to develop the Level two drivers. 15. M3 08: s pointed out in the research publication, there are two controllable factors that drive the number of infections, the population size and the infection rate at the beginning of each year. In case of the do nothing scenario, we will therefore just use these factors as level two drivers. For the island quarantine scenario, things get slightly more complex. The whole scenario is built on the premise of separating persons into two groups and then isolating the two groups from each other. This means that will have two distinct populations to analyze. In this scenario, one living on the quarantine island in the other, living on the regular mainland. Each population will have their own size in starting infection rate, therefore, will have four level two drivers in the island quarantine scenario. Eventually, we will separately calculate the infection numbers for the mainland and island populations and some them up to get the total infection numbers. In this scenario, let's quickly check our level two drivers with the BPS rules to see if we're doing things right. One direct drivers of question above. Check to same flight level. Check three mutually exclusive check. No logical overlaps. Four. Collectively exhaustive check there seemed to be no other relevant factors. With this, you now have a level of detail that makes you feel comfortable enough to conclude your structuring work. You drill down the key question through multiple layers. Your impression is that the right most drivers are likely straight forward to answer, as they appear to be independent and basic issues. In the next step, you will just need to provide answers to the right most side of the driver tree and then roll up your answers from right toe left until you answer your target question on the very left. This is really the essence of effectively structuring any problem in any project. Once you pin down the exact target question and the drivers below, you have your blueprint to solve it. This blueprint is also extremely helpful. If you're working in a team with others for three reasons, first it Let's everyone understand the big picture of what the team is trying to dio. This will increase team motivation tremendously, as everyone will know exactly what they're working for and why. Second, it helps your team to be super focused on the output and Onley work on the relevant inputs required to achieve this output. As a result, your team will become so much more efficient while producing much greater quality of work. Three. It enables you to split the work into overlap free modules based on the branches of the driver tree. Each team member may then take on individual branches of the driver tree. The consolidated results will automatically come together to create a meaningful answer to your project. How great is that? 16. M3 09: now, this was a section packed with lots of information, most of which may be new to you before you move on. We therefore suggest you take the time to review your notes as well as the additional content posted in this module. Also, start practicing this approach with a relatively simple riel life problem of your own choice. This could be any problem from school work or even your personal life experience. How this approach increases your clarity of thought, speeds up your decision making and increases your confidence in the decisions you are taking. 17. M4 01: in the last module, you worked out your project approach. By setting up a driver tree, you gain the necessary clarity about the target of your analysis and how to roughly get there. Now you can get going with the analysis itself. Just as you're about to sit down at your desk, your computer makes a paying noise notifying you of a new email. Oh, an email from Julie. Let's take a look at what she has to say. 18. M4 02: Okay, so Julie is pushing for the quarantine proposal. She's trying to use the projected quick spread of the virus to push for fast action, which will, of course, be based on her company Z 20 test. While you are not yet sure about the merits of the quarantine proposal, you realize that this is a very valuable information from Julie. The email and decided article clearly state the mathematical formula for projecting the number of new Z 20 infections. This is key for you to evaluate whether the island quarantine scenario will actually achieve the needed results. You take a closer look at the formula, so the annual number of new infections equals an infection constant multiplied by the infection rate to the power of a spread coefficient multiplied by the size of the uninfected population. This confirms your hypothesis. The new infections are a function of the population size, the infection rate and some disease specific constants exactly what you read about earlier in the research publication you found online. Julie's email also has estimates for this constant. The infection's constant for Z 20 is equal to 0.3, and the spread coefficient is equal to 1.4. Now you have all the information you need to carry out the analysis Ah solid driver tree as well as the inputs required to quantify each element of the driver tree. Time to make good use of all that information by carrying out a data driven analysis to arrive at a clear cut recommendation about the quarantine proposal. 19. M4 03: in this module, we will be heavily utilizing Microsoft Excel, which is the standard spreadsheet software used all over the world. If you have only basic knowledge and experience with Excel, don't worry. We will be going through the basics as well. If you are more experienced, you might find the first steps a bit slow. Hang in there. We will pick up speed along the way. To this day, Microsoft, Excel and its siblings are one of the most used tools in business and finance. As you build increasingly comprehensive and complex models, you will appreciate the computing power and flexibility these tools offer to get started. We want you to understand one of the most fundamental concepts of excel. The difference between hard coded and calculated cells. Ah, hard coded cell contains a figure that is manually typed into the cell. A calculated cell is one that computes its value based on a mathematical formula that combines values of other cells. Let's look at a very simple example and assume you own a small lemonade stand and want to calculate the day's turnover. For this we will be using to hard coated cells in one calculation cell. Let's open a new Microsoft Excel sheet and sell. See two. We directly type in the number of lemonade sold. Let's assume you sold 67 lemonades on a good day of work. Thus, we type in 67 directly into cell C two. Once you hit, enter the cell will show the figure you just typed in. It will show 67 now lets you sell. See three to type in the price per sold lemonade. Let's assume you were able to sell each lemonade for $2.5. Again, we type 2.5 directly into C three in the cell shows 2.5. Once you hit, enter both cells. C two and C three are hard coded cells because we manually typed in figures. Now we want to calculate the revenue in Cell C six. The revenue is driven by entries and sells C two and C three. It is the multiplication of both of those cells, and we need to type in an appropriate function in cell C six. We simply type in the equal symbol, followed by C two, followed by the multiplication symbol, followed by C three. Once you hit, enter, you will see that your formula entry disappears and you are left with the resulting figure . From the calculation, Excel retrieved the values from the cell locations referred to in the formula and calculated that the revenue equals $167.5. This is the figures shown in the cell since cell C six is a calculated cell and is linked to both the too hard coded cells, C two and C three. Any changes in Cell C two or C three will automatically and instantly change the value in cell C six. Let's assume you made an air and had actually sold 65 rather than 67 lemonades entering 65 sell. See two changes. The calculated Cell C six immediately toe 162.5. Because more complex functions can prove tricky to right, especially if they're driven by many cells, the program supports you when setting them up. In this example, you can set up the function in different ways the first way. We just demonstrated simply typing in the entire function, including the cell references. Alternatively, however, you can type in the equal symbol which signals to the program that you intend to insert a function in the cell, then you can simply use your mouse to click on Cell C to the program automatically enter C two in the function afterwards, type in the multiplication symbol and again use your mouse to click on C three, then just hit enter to complete the action. In essence, instead of having to type in the different locations of the cells that drive your functions , you can just click on them. This is especially helpful when you're function is driven by a cell in a different worksheet, or even a different file. In those cases, cell references become very long, making it quite tedious to type them in manually. Now, without further boring you with this basic level of excel, The point we want to make here is the following. It is absolutely vital toe. Always keep track of your hard coded and calculated cells. Optimally, you will keep them separate and mark them accordingly. In this example, hard coded cells use a blue fund, whereas calculated cells used green font. Think of hard coded cells as the inputs that flow through your model. On the other hand, think of your calculation cells as the machinery that processes those inputs. Many Great Excel models have been sabotaged by hard coded cells, which should have been calculated sales instead. Unfortunately, this then leads to plain wrong results, or you spending hours and hours combing through your Excel model to find the source of any inconsistencies arising in the output, save yourself the hassle and simply choose toe. Always format hard coded and calculated cells in two distinct ways. 20. M4 04: before we dive into setting up your quantitative analysis model using Microsoft Excel will take a step back and ask What is the ultimate objective of this analysis? Why is a spreadsheet calculation or model needed? Since we have taken the time to formulate an approach and come up with a driver tree in the previous module, the answer is already clear. The analysis will follow the exact driver tree structure that was set up in the previous module level zero. The ultimate objective is to gauge whether the island quarantine solution will reduce the expected number of new infections Level one. To do so, we will calculate the number of new infections in two scenarios. First, doing nothing in second, implementing the quarantine solution level to to calculate the infection numbers, we will need to get figures for the relevant populations and the infection rates for both scenarios. Let's use this driver tree to structure our analysis on the highest level. A good model will follow the input throughput output structure. These air the three integral parts of any model. First, the input section shows an overview of all assumptions and inputs that will drive the analysis. Note that these will all be hard coded cells. However, we highly encourage you toe limit hard coded cells to this input section on Lee. Do not use hard coded cells in any other section. Second, the throughput section contains all the calculations needed for the analysis. It will be structured along the driver tree that we developed in the previous module. This part of the model could be thought of as the core machinery of the model that processes whatever figure it receives from the input. It shows the exact step by step calculations with all intermediate steps leading up to the final result. This section needs to be constructed in a clear cut, easy to review way. This means keeping formulas relatively simple and including comments as necessary, helping you and others Teoh easily keep track of the models Logic Third, the output section gives an overview of the results. Based on the throughput calculation. I dealing no further calculations are conducted in the output part. Instead, the output will merely linked to the appropriate cells of the throughput section to pull together all key results in an easy to read manner. In a good model, an outside observer would be able to very quickly read and understand the total model objective by just reading the input and output parts. Also here, she would be able to modify individual assumptions and figures in the input part and quickly see how this affects the results in the output section. For this motto, we will have one worksheet for the input part. For the throughput part, we will be using three worksheets corresponding to the levels of the driver tree we formulated in the previous module. Last but not least, we will have one output sheet. 21. M4 05: let's begin with the input sheet as mentioned before. In this worksheet, we will show an overview with all assumptions and information that were collected from meetings and interviews that we think are relevant for the analysis. Remember that the input BART will consist of hard coated figures. Open a new Excel worksheet and type in the most important assumption and input information . After you are done, download the sample solution and take some time to compare the results. 22. M4 06: if you remember, Julie has given you some very valuable information on the current state of the disease. The population of the United States is currently at 320 million and expected to remain at this level for the foreseeable future. The estimated infection rate currently stands at 2%. The accuracy of Julie's new test is 96%. Another important piece of information came from Julie's email. A mathematical formula can be used to predict the spread of Z 20. The formula combines four variables. A disease specific infection constant and a spread coefficient, as well as the starting infection rate and the size of the population. The infection constant for Z 20 equals 0.3. The spread coefficient frizzy 20 equals 1.8. Julie also talked about when she thinks an antidote will be available. The chance of having it by the end of next year is 10% increasing toe 100% by the end of year 10. As an estimate for the antidote, availability chance in the intermediate years will make the assumption that chances increase linearly from year 1 to 10 therefore will enter an annual 10% increase. Er for years to 29 This input sheet now covers all relevant information that we collected beforehand. As the analysis progresses, you might realize that you need additional figures or assumptions. It is important that once that happens, you make sure to include them on the input sheet and on Lee. They're not on any other test sheet. In case you have to make assumptions like we did here for the antidote availability in years 2 to 9, you have to be sensible about doing so. On one hand, you want your assumptions to be well founded and easy to verify. On the other hand, you don't want to capture every single minor aspect that could influence your results. This would lead to an overly engineered model with only little additional accuracy. The best approach is to start with the simplest set of assumptions that you think is reasonable and verifiable. Then, after completing the model, carry out a test change the individual assumptions to see whether any of them has a significant impact on the final result. You will realize that the final result won't change much for many of the assumptions. While it may react more sensitively, toe others in this situation. You may then zoom in on Lee on those sensitive assumptions to verify and detail them even more. 23. M4 07: Now let's move on to the throughput part. To construct it, we will follow the three levels of the driver tree we formulated in the previous motto. As always, this will save us a tremendous amount of time by helping us to stay focused and avoid any side tangents, since our structure has three levels. Will also set up the throughput section of the model as three worksheets in reverse order one. The first throughput sheet will show the populations and the corresponding infection rates for both scenarios. This corresponds to a level two of driver tree to the second throughput. She calculates the number of new infections again for both scenarios. This corresponds to a level one driver tree three. The third throughput. She uses the number of new infections in each scenario, as well as the likelihood of the antidote being available in any given year to come up with a clear cut answer. For the target question. This corresponds toe level zero of the defined driver tree. This first throughput sheet corresponds toe level two of our driver tree. We need to calculate some figures for both scenarios. Let's begin with the do nothing scenario. The driver tree calls for two figures to be quantified. The total population and the infection re here will calculate those two and also will process them even further by adding the size of the uninfected as well as the infected population. Let's go through them one by one. For the total population, all we need to do is retrieve the value from the corresponding cell in the input sheet. Remember that as we're working in a throughput sheet, no hard coded entries are allowed, therefore, will link to the corresponding cell J nine on the input sheet. To calculate the number of people infected, we multiply the assumed infection rate with the total population in our sample solution. The infection rate is in cell J 10 of the input sheet. As for the total population weaken, just use the cell directly above. For the number of uninfected people, we can just subtract the infected population from the total population. Both figures are in the cells directly above unless but not least, the infection rate is the division of the infected population. By the total population again, both required figures are in the cells directly above. This was a quite simple first step for which we only use the Basic Excel functions. Nevertheless, we suggest you download and review the sample solution before continuing. 24. M4 08: the same four figures now need to be calculated for the island quarantine scenario here, it will get a bit more tricky. The whole idea of the quarantine solution is to separate infected from healthy persons. Imposing the quarantine effectively splits the U. S. Population into two separate populations with different infection rates. This means the four figures will be calculated twice one time for the island population and one time for the mainland population. At this point, it makes sense to think about how the total population will be divided up into the to post quarantine populations. The idea is that every person who has tested positively will end up on the island. A person testing negatively is allowed to stay on the mainland. However, the test has an accuracy level below 100%. This means that some of the positively tested persons will in reality not be infected. Conversely, some of the negatively tested persons will, in reality carry the disease. Let's illustrate this in a simple two by two matrix, one axis will be the reality. Infected or not, the other access will be the results of the test positive or negative in this matrix. There are four distinct outcomes. First, an infected person may test positive. This is a correct diagnosis and happens 96% of the time. Let's call this group true positives. Second, an uninfected person may be tested positively. This is a wrong diagnosis and happens 4% of the time will call this group false positives. Third, an infected person may be misdiagnosed with a negative test result. This also happens 4% of the time. This group is to be called false negatives. Lastly, an uninfected person, maybe correctly diagnosed with negative test result, which happens 96% of the time. This group is to be called true negatives. These four groups summarized the possible outcomes. The top two groups receive a positive test result and therefore will be sent to the island . Quarantine. The bottom two groups receive a negative test result and are allowed to remain on the mainland. As noted in the previous modules. This is what consultants would call a me see structure. If you remember, this stands for mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive mutually exclusive means that the four groups have no overlap whatsoever. No person in the total population will be in more than one group. The groups are also collectively exhaustive, meaning that adding up the persons in each group will equal the entire population. Keep this concept in mind as a way to derive structures in your analysis. It will help you to reduce complexity by cutting problems into smaller, manageable portions. Going back to the issue at hand, we now divided the population into four me see groups. Persons in the two groups testing positive will go to the island regardless of their actual infection. State persons in the other two groups with a negative test result are allowed to stay on the mainland again, regardless of their actual infection state. 25. M4 09: use the Last Excel file you downloaded and fill in the missing cells marked in light grey colors. Remember to avoid any hard coded entries, all inputs for the calculations you need to make our already available. After you are done, download the sample solution to compare results. 26. M4 10: Let's explore how to calculate the required figures, starting with the true positives. This group is comprised of everyone who is actually infected and also diagnosed correctly with a positive test result based on the test accuracy. This applies to 96% of all infected persons to calculate the group size. We therefore multiply the infected population, which we already have on the same excel sheet, with the test accuracy of 96% which we retrieved from the input sheet. Now let's calculate the number of true negatives. This group includes everyone who is not infected and also diagnosed correctly with a negative test result. Again, this applies in 96% of all uninfected persons. A simple multiplication of the uninfected population with the test accuracy of 96% from the input sheet does the trick. Calculating the false negatives and false positives could be done. Analog asl e again, a simple multiplication formula suffices. The false negatives represent all infected persons testing negative. Based on a 96% test accuracy, 4% of tests will be false. This is the level of inaccuracy which we retrieved by calculating one minus the accuracy level multiplying this figure by the infected population yields the number of false negatives. Conversely, multiplying the level of inaccuracy by the uninfected population yields the number of false positives. With this, we're done calculating the number of people in each of the four me see groups defined before. At this point, it makes sense to do a first sanity check of your model. Sanity Checks are a critical tool that you should make generous use of when building models . Sanity checks help you find inevitable flaws in your calculations. Even the most excel savvy person will make mistakes, so it is crucial to detect and correct them early on. In this case, we will simply add up the figures of all four groups. The sum should equal the total population size as the four groups are defined in a ME see structure. This way, we avoid counting double or missing parts of the puzzle. Adding all the numbers together does result in 320 million, which is the exact figure for the U. S. Population. Check now, let's use our results to determine the characteristics of the mainland and island populations. If you remember everyone, testing negatively will be allowed to stay on the mainland. The mainland population will be comprised of true negatives and false negatives. Adding up the previously calculated numbers, we arrive at 301.3 million persons on the mainland, of which 0.3 million will actually be infected with Z 20. Their fourth e infection rate will be 0.1%. On the other hand, everyone testing positively will be sent to the island. The island population will therefore include true positives and false positives. Adding up the two numbers, three island population will be 18.7 million in total, of which 6.1 million will actually be infected. The remaining 12.5 million people will be unjustly quarantined on the island. Wow, this is a large number. This surprising result can be traced back to the 4% inaccuracy level of the test. If the test were 100% accurate, we would only have to me see group's true negatives and true positives. This would have also meant that the mainland would have an infection rate of 0% while the island quarantine would have an infection rate of 100% a perfect separation. Unfortunately, reality doesn't seem to work this way, with the test producing false results 4% of the time. This inaccuracy does not have much impact on the mainland, with the infection rate increasing from a theoretical 0% toe, only 0.1%. It does, however, have a profound impact on the island, with the infection rate going from a theoretical 100% toe less than 35% translated into reality, This means 12.5 million uninfected persons would have to move to the island quite a tragedy . 27. M4 11: looking at the insights you developed, you are quite astonished. Almost 70% of the quarantine population will be non infected persons. While you understand the idea behind the quarantine proposal, this instill strong reservations regarding its ethics and feasibility of implementation. The core of the proposal was the goal to separate infected people from the general population in an attempt to curb the spread of the disease. While this seems to work on the mainland, the results on the quarantine island are far from perfect. At this point. Even though you haven't yet finished your analysis, you can already see strong arguments against this approach. It is estimated that initially 2% of the population, or 6.4 million persons, are infected. Yet this approach will result in sending no less than 18 million people to the quarantine. More than 12 million of them will be uninfected. This is not only unfair, but it will also result in most of them getting infected quickly due to the high infection rate on the island. Congress will never accept this proposal, no matter what the senator says about extraordinary times requiring extraordinary measures . Congress will appeal to its responsibility for all citizens and exposing such a large number of persons to, Ah, horrible infection goes against that responsibility in every conceivable way. Somehow you feel relieved after you see the number. You didn't like the approach from the beginning, but now you're building a bulletproof, fact driven case against it. Within the limitation that the senator said for you, it seems likely that the numbers won't turn out well for the quarantine scenario. Invigorated by your findings, you are ready to move on with your analysis and close this once and for all. 28. M4 12: Now that we've finished the first part of the analysis, we can move forward to the second part. Looking at the driver tree we set up the second part of the analysis deals with calculating the number of new infections. Both of we do nothing. And if we decide to go for the quarantine solution, because our assumption is that there will be a cure at the latest by year 10 and because we will need to calculate the number of new infections per year until the cure arrives, it makes sense to calculate this figure 10 years into the future. As indicated by Julie, the number of new infections per year can be calculated based on four figures. The uninfected population and the infection re at the beginning of the year, as well as Thean faction Constant and the spread coefficient. Let's start with the do nothing scenario to explain the method. We will initially focus on calculating the 1st 2 years before moving on to the latter eight years. The number of new infections in year one is a function of the initial uninfected population and infection rate, as well as the infection constant and the spread coefficient All these figures are readily available either in the input sheet or in the first throughput sheet. After we calculate the new infections in year one, we will then compute the new uninfected population and infection rate figures at the end of your one thes air equivalent to the figures at the beginning of year two, and will thus be used to calculate the new infections for year to this logic repeats itself until year 10 yielding the expected number of infections for each year. Note that while the uninfected population and infection rate are changing year over year, the spread coefficient and infection constant will be constant over the entire period. 29. M4 13: open the last sample solution you downloaded and go to the second throughput sheet. Fill out the missing cells in year one and year two of the do nothing scenarios, which are marked in gray. Use the logic we just walk through to come up with the correct functions in the corresponding cells again. Remember to avoid any hard coded entries. After you are done, download the sample solution to compare results. 30. M4 14: having calculated years one in to let us now apply the same calculation logic for years 3 to 10. However, to save time, we won't re enter the corresponding functions for the cells in each year. Instead, will set up the formulas in such a way that Excel will do the work forest when we copy and paste them into the next year's columns, for example, to calculate the top three cells in Year three, we want to make use of the formulas of Year two. These should contain the figures for the infected population, the initial uninfected population and the initial infection rate at the beginning of your three. These figures are driven directly by the corresponding end of Year two figures. One column to the left. This is the same pattern as in year two, where the figures air driven by the end of your one values. Let's copy this formula pattern by highlighting the top three cells in year two and pressing control. See, then we highlight the corresponding cells in Year three and hit Control V. This automatically results in the exact figures we were looking for. It is important to understand what actually happens in the background. We just copied cells that contain functions. We then pasted them into cells. One column to the right Excel copies the exact function while moving this cell references in the function by exactly the number of columns and lines that lie between the original cell in the new cell, where you paste the formula. In this case, Excel shifted the cell reference one column to the right. Exactly what we needed. However, we don't always want Excel to change cell references. When we copy and paste cells, for example, the formula for new infections is more complex. It contains four cell references, of which two need to shift when being copied and to need to remain fixed. The two flexible references linked to the uninfected population and the affection rate of the year ending beforehand. The two fixed reference is linked to the spread coefficient and infection constant on the input sheet by adding dollar signs to the corresponding cell locations in Year two. As shown in the formula here, you can fixate the to sell references when you now copy the cell containing the number of new infections for year two and pasted in the column for year three to sell references will remain the same, while the other two will shift accordingly. Let's move on to the lower three cells in your three. These should contain the figures for the infected population, the initial uninfected population and the initial infection rate at the end of year three. The calculations in these cells contain no cell reference that needs to be dollarized. Thus, we can simply copy the cells from year to and paste them in year three without any need to adjust the formulas and add dollar signs. Year three is now populated with the correct functions and values. Now that the functions so references in year two and three are properly set up, weaken, just copy and paste them into the rest of the years. Column by column. Excel will automatically apply the right formulas to the remaining years. Sell references without dollar signs are accordingly shifted to the right, whereas references with dollar signs remain unchanged. This concludes the second throughput sheet calculations for the do nothing scenario, download the interim model and review the cells in the second throughput sheet. Make sure you understand the underlying logic and take some time to play around with the formulas before continuing 31. M4 15: now we can move on to the island quarantine scenario again. Open the last sample solution. You download it and populate the cells marked in light grey. Note that you will need to separately run the numbers for the population living on the mainland as well as the population quarantined on the island. After you are done, download the sample solution to compare your results. 32. M4 16: Let's take a minute to understand what these results tell us. Starting with the proposed quarantine island solution, we can see that the situation on the mainland develops quite well. The infection rate does not exceed a low 0.1% all the way up to your 10. That means there are almost no new infections on the mainland. The size of the infected population remains low at roughly 0.3 million. The island, however, shows a very different development there. The infection rate goes up from around 33% toe over 80% in your 10. This means the size of the infected population increases from around six million toe almost 16 million. Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Assuming no antidote is available to the end of your 10 the do nothing scenario would see the infected population increased from 6.4 million today to 12.4 in your 10. This is nearly a doubling of the infections. Implementing the island quarantine proposal, however, would see this number increased to 16.1 million. This is nearly four million mawr infections compared to doing nothing 33. M4 17: Now, these results are quite interesting. You tell yourself Julie was right. It is possible to fully contain the infection rate at 0.1% at least if you're focuses only on the mainland, where the number of infected people barely rises at all in the next 10 years. This was also the main hypothesis behind the whole island quarantine proposal. However, in the bigger picture, this will nonetheless increase the overall number of infections as most people on the island will be infected over time. The less than perfect test with a 4% chance of misdiagnosis will result in lots of uninfected people being sent to the island. Quarantine those poor souls, then will have a one in two chance of being infected over the next 10 years. Forget ethics and execution hurdles. These numbers talk for themselves. You are sure now that once you finish the analysis, it will show that the island quarantine approach does not make sense. 34. M4 18: Now let's move on to the third and final part of the analysis, which will be on our third throughput sheet. In this analysis step, we will take all the information and aggregated toe one concrete answer to the target question. We will then provide a definite answer to the question whether the island quarantine approach leads to a lower number of infections compared to doing nothing to do so. We need the number of infections in the do nothing scenario in the same figure for the island. Quarantine scenario on throughput Sheet to We already calculated the number of annual new infections for both scenarios. However, this was done without incorporating the probability of an available antidote, which has a significant effect on the numbers. For example, let's suppose an antidote becomes available at the end of year five. This means that all calculated infection starting year six will be prevented. This will have a tremendous effect on the expected number of infections. If you remember, we made assumptions for the antidote availability on the input sheet. We assumed that the probability of an antidote being available rises from 10% at the end of the first year. Toe 100% at the end of year 10 now will incorporate these assumptions into our calculation and come up with the total expected number of new infections. For each scenario, the logic is fairly simple. We have the probability of an available antidote at the end of each year. We can use this to calculate the probability of infections actually happening in the year following, which will be the inverse probability calculated by subtracting the probability from 100%. Let's take year to. As an example, we know that at the end of your one, there is a 10% probability of an antidote being available. This means that the new infections in year to have a 90% chance of actually taking place. Now all we need to do is multiply the annual probabilities of infections actually taking place with the corresponding calculated gross number of new infections, which we calculated on the second throughput sheet. This gives us the total expected new infections for each year. The last step is to total all the resulting annual values to come up with an aggregated total number of expected infections per scenario 35. M4 19: open the Last Excel file you downloaded and go to the third throughput sheet. Fill out the empty cells marked in gray. After you're done, download the sample solution and compare with your results. 36. M4 20: the third throughput sheet results in the answer to the target question whether we can reduce the number of new Z 20 infections by implementing an island quarantine as suggested by the senator. Based on everything we know today, including the probability of an available antidote in the next 10 years, we can say that the answer is a resounding no. Implementing the senator's proposal results in 5.3 million expected new infections over the next 10 years. Doing nothing, on the other hand, would result in 2.9 million new infections. This means that the proposal is actually worse than just doing nothing and waiting for the antidote to become available. 37. M4 21: this concludes our work on the throughput sheets. The last building block in our model is the output sheet on an output sheet. You want to have a visually appealing overview of the most important results in your calculations. This way, even outsiders can easily review all key results and insights of your motto without having to get into the intricacies of the throughput sheets to design the output sheet. Always think first about the ultimate goals of the model as well as the key insights you developed with it. The output sheet should show exactly these elements no more and no less. Our output sheet here should generally compare. Both scenarios in both scenarios will first give a clear picture of the initial starting situations regarding infections at the end of year zero. To do so, we show the infected population and the infection rate. While these values will be equal in both scenarios, it still makes sense to show them in each scenario in order to highlight that the starting point is identical. Next, we can display the resulting infection situation at the end of year 10 again by showing the infected population infection rate as well as the total number of new infections of the 10 year horizon. All three figures do not take into account a possible antidote availability before your 10 and thus are not the final figures. However, they give a very good view on how both scenarios, starting at the same point, result in quite different developments of the infection situation. Another very important figure to show is the total number of expected infections. After adjusting for the probability of an available antidote before year 10 this is the figure that reflects each scenarios impact most accurately. Based on that figure, we can calculate to what degree the number of new infections will be affected in the island quarantine scenario. This figure is basically the answer to the target question. The island quarantined scenario only makes sense if there is a significant reduction in the number of new infections compared to the do nothing scenario, a negative reduction liken our analysis here means that the number of infections would actually increase in the island quarantine scenario. One main insight generated in our analysis is that the majority of persons sent to the quarantine island will in fact be uninfected due to the 4% air rate of the test. Packing together so many uninfected people with a sizeable number of infected people is the recipe that leads to the rapid increase in infections on the island. It is therefore the main argument against the island solution. Note that we show quite a few intermediate results on our output sheet here. We do so to enable outsiders to quickly follow the logic by which we arrive at this seemingly surprising result. 38. M4 22: open the Last Excel file you downloaded and navigate to the output sheet. Fill out the cells marked in gray. As always, Make sure not to make any hard coded entries. After you're done, download the sample solution and compare your results. 39. M4 23: The final overview gives a good summary of why you think the island quarantine doesn't make sense. The expected number of infections in the quarantine scenario would be significantly higher than if we do nothing. 5.3 million versus 2.9 million. That's an increase of 85%. This answers the target question quite clearly. Know the island quarantine, as proposed by the senator, will not lead to reduction of the number of new infections. On the contrary, it will almost double the infections. 40. M4 24: Now you have set up an entire model and reached a clear cut and crisp result. Even by the senator standards, the island quarantine solution makes no sense at all. And it is all in the numbers, so it will be hard arguing against it. You look at the figures again, and a quick skin through doesn't show any consistency issues. Everything seems fine. Okay, You think to yourself you're going to walk up to the senator and tell him that his idea doesn't work. But how will he react? You put yourself into his shoes and think Here is an ambitious senator may be too ambitious who is trying to take the Z 20 issue head on. And then there is little Tom telling him to forget about his great idea. Even if the analysis is bulletproof, he will be disappointed. And most probably he will, at least on a subconscious level, associate me with that disappointing experience. Bring solutions, not problems. This is what they've been telling you in business school over and over again. Now you're going to present the senator with a problem that renders his great idea useless without showing him a way out. What if there is another way to salvage his idea or even ah, highly attractive alternative, you take a second look at your analysis on the mainland. The infection rate drops significantly and would be expected to stay more or less constant over the next 10 years. However, the island is the big issue, showing a rapid spread of the Z 20 disease in an optimal world, the island would Onley host infected persons. But we are far from that. Due to the 4% error rate of try pharmaceutical Z 20 test, the question is how the circumstances could be improved. Ah, simple answer would be to increase the accuracy of the test. Maybe there is another test out there. They're reaches better accuracy. Or maybe try Pharmaceuticals is already working on an updated and better version. Well, this seems like a long shot. You decide to put that on your list of options to explore. Another approach would be to retest anyone who tests positive. You know that 4% of people tested positive are in reality not infected. What if you re tested everyone who test positive Onley? If they'd score positive twice, they'd be sent off to the island. This would likely reduce the number of non infected persons on the island dramatically. Okay. You think to yourself this needs some more analysis. 41. M4 25: before you move on to excel, take some time to fully comprehend what you just came up with and how it fits in the total picture. Basically, we're now looking at two adapted versions of the island Quarantine scenario. Let's call those sub scenarios in this logic. The original version of the island Quarantine, the one the senator pitched in his office is also a sub scenario. You decide to call that original version the single testing sub scenario, the one you already analyzed and discovered that it won't work. Well, then you came up with a new adapted version where you want to probe how an increase in test accuracy will change the outcome. You call that one the increased accuracy sub scenario For this one, you'll still need to run an analysis to see whether improving the accuracy to, for example, 99% would actually improve the situation. In any case, you'll need to check in with Julie to see how feasible that is anyway. Lastly, you came up with another adapted version where you suggest to retest all positively tested people. Let's call that one the double testing sub scenario. This one also needs to be analysed regarding its potential to improve the outcome. This will take a bit more work as you will need to adjust the models underlying logic. In this sub scenario, people who test positive for the first time will now be retested a second time on Lee. If both tests come back positive, they will be sent to the island. All others will be allowed to remain on the mainland. Now that we have clarity on what we want to calculate, weaken, start implementing it in Microsoft Excel. Luckily, we won't need to build a New Excel model as we can build on the one we designed beforehand . We just need to modify it to accurately represent the newly defined sub scenarios. 42. M4 26: make two copies of the Excel files containing the last sample solution you downloaded. Rename one of the copies to increase accuracy, sub scenario and the other two double testing sub scenario. Adjust both models accordingly. Start with the increased accuracy sub scenario as it will be easier to adjust after you are done, download the sample solutions and compare your results. 43. M4 27: let's start with the increase accuracy sub scenario. The resulting figures look much better than before. Instead of sending 12.5 million uninfected people to the island. As was the case with the original scenario, Onley 3.1 million will now face this fate. The total number of expected infections are now 2.1 million. This is an improvement compared to the do nothing scenario which produces 2.9 million total expected infections. This means that if the test accuracy can be increased to 99% the quarantine proposal would be effective by actually decreasing the number of new infections by approximately a bit more than 1/4. The figures for the double testing sub scenario are even better. Onley 0.5 million uninfected people will be sent to the island, a huge improvement compared to the 12.5 million in the single testing sub scenario. Total expected infections are now 0.4 million. This means that double testing would yield a massively better result. Compared to do nothing as well as the increased accuracy sub scenario. It is clearly your preferred approach. You just need to make sure that it is feasible. However, 44. M4 28: you are satisfied you came up with two sensible adjustments to the senators approach that would result in less infections than the do nothing scenario. You still have some qualms about the ethical side of the proposal, but from a pure numbers perspective and now does seem to make sense. And the senator was very explicit with his demand for a purely analytical investigation. Still, one last thing you need to dio is to clear this with Julie, as CEO of Tri Pharmaceuticals. Sheikhoun tell you whether these sub scenarios are actually realistic and maybe even give you other essential insights since she gave you her contact details and told you to call her as needed. You are going to take her up on that offer. You prepare some questions you want to ask her. There are three things you want to check with Julie. First, you want to test the feasibility of increasing the test accuracy. Second, you want to discuss your double testing idea with her, and third, you'd like to use the opportunity to verify the Onley big assumption. You had to make the antidote availability over the years increasing from 10% in the first year to 100% by the end of year 10. You dial Julie's number. Julie speaking. You tell Julie that you are Ralph from the senator's office biting your tongue. You will need to address this name issue once the project is done. Oh, hi, Ralph. Good to hear from you. Of course. What can I help you with? Great. She seems to have a couple of minutes for you. You quickly explain the results of your analysis and point out that 4% error rate of the test is making the quarantine proposal unsuccessful. You carefully mentioned that you were wondering whether there is any test out there that would have ah, higher accuracy. Look, Ralph, let me just point out that try pharmaceuticals test is the cheapest and most accurate out there in the market. Our competitors are not even close. You can trust me on that. And because of the way this specific virus behaves, don't expect anything much better to come along in the next years. This is really as good as it gets. Okay, on Lee, a minor setback here. You didn't really expect that there would be a better test available soothingly. You tell Julie, that you are very aware of how great the testes. And of course, you weren't trying to be little the accomplishments of try pharmaceuticals. You mentioned that another idea would be to retest all the positively tested people before sending them to the island. This could really have a strong impact and might just make the island quarantine solution work. You explain? Mm. Okay. I think I understand what you're saying. You suggest that anyone testing positive would be required to do a second test Onley. If they test positive twice, they be brought onto the island. Let me think about that. Honestly, as much as I like this idea from a business perspective, I don't think that would work. Ralph, I will spare you the scientific details. But the bottom line is this For Z 20 a retest will always yield the same result as the initial test. Since it's not a statistical air, a person who gets a false test result today will certainly get the same false result tomorrow. And any day after that, different characteristics of the human body relating to the build up of antibodies lead to structurally false results. And these characteristics do not change over time. Therefore, I'm afraid retesting doesn't make sense whatsoever. So the retesting wouldn't work. What a bummer. It sounded like the perfect plan. And now this. You think Julie for her honesty and posed the third question to inquire about the antidote availability assumptions you made in your model. Ah, this is a tough one, Ralph. The truth is, I don't know. Pharmaceutical developments are very unpredictable. This is something we struggle with every day. I know we are working on an antidote today, and I know other pharmaceuticals Air doing the same. But I'd be lying if I tell you any specific date. No one knows for sure. Come on, Julie. Give me something here. You think to yourself sympathetically. You tell her that you understand her reluctance to offer any estimates. Based on your experience with many experts, you begin to tell her what your own assumptions are. You tell her about how you assume that the chances of having an antidote available rises linearly from 10% in year 1 to 100% by the end of year 10. This seems to do the trick and motivates Julie to jump into the discussion. This makes sense, Ralph. You can use this assumption. Start at 10% in year one and grow by 10% every year till your 10 when you reach 100%. You are right to say that Antidote development is a Nate Lee complex and very hard to plan . But I have always said some of the issues are self inflicted. We lose precious time because of all the approvals and paperwork we have to go through. Sensing an opportunity, you ask her how much time she thinks her company loses on all that paperwork. Most of it is totally superfluous. If we could have a streamlined and fast track process, at least for this antidote, I am sure we can decrease time to market by three years easily. Wow, you think to yourself this would be a huge improvement. You think Julie very much for her support. Of course, Ralph happy to help. So neither of the island quarantine sub scenarios works. The single testing sub scenario as pitched by the senator will actually increase the number of new infections. As for the other two substance areas you came up with, both of them seemed to not be feasible. Based on Julie's remarks. This is unfortunate, as it could have somehow salvaged the senator's island quarantine proposal. Still, the last comment Julie made got you thinking three years less. Development time is a lot. What would that do to the number of expected infections? Maybe you could suggest to scrap the island quarantine approach and go for a more moderate approach of setting up a streamline and fast track process. For the Z 20 antidote, you decide to create a new scenario and call it the fast track approval scenario. 45. M4 29: again, we'll set up another adjusted Excel model to crunch the numbers for your new fast track approval scenario in this motto will need to modify the probability curve for the availability of an antidote. The initial model was built on a 10% probability after year one and a 100% probability after year 10 according to Julie. In the fast track scenario, we can assume that an antidote will be available by the end of year seven. This means the probability again starts at 10% at the end of your one and then grows linearly to reach 100% at the end of year seven. 46. M4 30: make another copy of the original Excel file and rename it to fast track approval scenario adjusted to represent the fast track approval scenario. After you are done, download the sample solution to compare results. 47. M4 31: The fast track approval sub scenario clearly has a positive impact on the total number of expected infections, which are now two million instead of 2.9 million in the do nothing scenario. This is a decrease of more than 30% and a clear argument for this approach. In effect, the results shows that cutting some bureaucratic red tape will allow everyone to stay on the mainland while still reducing the Z 20 infections significantly. 48. M4 32: now you believe you have come full circle. You started with two scenarios. You compared to do nothing scenario with the island quarantine solution and realize that the island quarantine in its original form leads to higher infections than doing nothing. Based on that, you define two possible adjustments or sub scenarios for the island quarantine. Both resulted in very promising numbers that could justify an island quarantine but unfortunately turned out to be not feasible. Last but not least, you identified 1/3 scenario, which seems to be feasible and leads to fewer new infections than doing nothing. Additionally, it is a scenario that is ethically much more acceptable to you than the island quarantine proposal. You feel comfortable presenting this to the senator as an attractive alternative. Now that you completed the analysis and are confident about the results, it is time to package all these insights into an effective presentation for the senator 49. M5 01: having carried out your investigations and analysis, it is now time to create the final presentation. This is the key product that will make or break your success. Even if you did an outstanding job analyzing the issue in compiling a solution, the presentation is really the part that makes sure your insights are heard, understood and eventually acted upon. It is the single most visible end product of your work. Therefore, you need to allocate a good proportion of your schedule towards creating the final presentation. As always, by following our process, you will be focusing your precious time on the most value. Adding steps in this module. We will help Tom create his presentation on the Z 20 issue for the senator. On the way, you will learn exactly how you can go from an empty power point file to a professional and great looking presentation that will convince your audience well, we will teach all the techniques applied to the Z 20 case. You can use the exact same principles in any other presentation as well. Now let's get started 50. M5 02: In this section, you will get familiar with the five step process that guides you to create a professional impactful presentation in the shortest possible time. The first step is story lining. Based on your knowledge of the audience, you will create a tailored executive summary, which reads like a beautiful story. In the second step, you'll be setting the agenda for your presentation. This can be a simple is assigning names to the logical pieces of your storyline. In some circumstances, however, it can be necessary to make tactical decisions to best serve your goals in the presentation . More on that later. In this module, the third step is a quite mechanical one. You will take the statements from the executive summary and create one blank slide for statement. If you're working in a team, this is the time to allocate responsibilities by putting name tags on the individual slides on Li. In the fourth step, will you start to create the actual slides? Remember that you always want to approach presentations top down. This applies to the five steps, but also to the actions within each step to create a slide, you will go from thinking about its key messages to the slide layout, then to the actual content and only lastly, the formatting in polishing. The fifth step is all about taking a step back to take a neutral look at your piece of work . If you follow the steps before the presentation will already be in great shape for important presentations. You should, however, take the time to put yourself into your audiences shoes to critically evaluate where things could be improved. Request feedback from outsiders as well, if you want Teoh. 51. M5 03: note that you should create any presentation by following these steps. One by one, most people will jump straightaway into step for creating random slides. This is exactly the reason why people end up spending a lot of time creating mediocre presentations. Why is this the case? It all comes down to creating a stringent, logical and convincing story that flows throughout the document. It is really hard to create such a story when you work bottom up from individual slides. If there's one thing you take away from this course, make it this always approach presentations from a top down perspective. We really can't emphasize enough how important it is to follow the steps we outline here. Give it a try for the next three presentations you are creating and you'll never look back Promise. Now we'll explore how Tom applies Thes five principles to create the Z 20 presentation 52. M5 04: the first step. Story lining begins with an audience assessment. Imagine yourself in the shoes of the senator and ask yourself the following questions. One. What does the senator know already to? What is the senator's view on the topic? Three. What would the senator want to know? And four, Which concerns does the senator have? Now here's a little quiz. We'd like you to jot down short answers to each of these questions. 53. M5 05: great. Now that you've clarified your thoughts on where the senator stands, you can go into content creation mode. Do you remember which slide you should always create first? 54. M5 06: Okay, let's start by writing the executive summary. As the name tells, an executive summary is aimed at informing decision makers about all they need to know to make a decision regarding the topic covered. A key feature is that it stands alone and by itself, meaning there is no need to read the rest of the presentation unless the reader is interested in additional details. Senior audiences typically would read the executive summary first and often not more than that. For additional details, they would jump into the actual presentation and selectively review individual slides as required. This helps them to save a tremendous amount of time. Crafting a great story with an easy to follow executive summary is an art that needs to be perfected over time. Become great at it and you will stand out among your colleagues. This is also one of the key skills that top management consultants are highly paid for. So how do you write a great summary of your story? Turns out there is a structure that can help you. A great story typically contains the following components in this order. First context. Why does this presentation exist? Most likely you've been working on the topic you're about to present for a while, often for multiple weeks or even months. You likely have a solid understanding of why this topic is relevant and how it fits into the bigger context of your department or company. Don't expect others to have the same level of understanding. Instead, carefully think through how your audience looks at the topic. What do they know already? Are they aware of your work at all? Do they understand the basics? And most importantly, why is this presentation relevant to them? Capture the answer to these questions in one or two sentences. Make sure they are appropriate for your target audience. Envision them reading these sentences. They should be nodding their head in agreement, mumbling exactly right. Second questions to be addressed in the presentation here. You want to outline exactly those questions that you will answer in the presentation again . Put yourself into your audiences shoes to come up with a list of questions that they will have. Jot them down in an unstructured, brainstorming type of list, then group them into topics. Aim for three to a maximum of five topics for a single presentation. This helps to keep your audience engaged and focused with this, you clearly set the stage for the document and your presentation. You effectively prepare your audience toe. Listen to what you have to say by letting them know exactly which topics you will be covering. This is really important for the presentation to go smoothly. Did you ever attend or even lead a meeting where the discussion was unfocused and everyone seemed to be distracted? Often times The root cause for this is that the presentation in the meeting does not have this upfront structure. This leads the audience to think ahead too much instead of engaging with a content being discussed. If your audience has some pressing issues and questions but is unsure whether and when the respective topic will come up, they will either be preoccupied with their thoughts or will interrupt and derailed of presentation. Deliver a clear structure upfront to avoid this and to help your audience be focused. It will make a dramatic difference in the discussion. You will have third answers to those questions here you want to formulate concise and to the point answers to the questions you stated beforehand. Ideally, there is one sentence per topic, summarising the key insights. Each sentence should focus on the insight as opposed to the details. The insight is the So what of your findings? It is basically the conclusion that you draw for the perspective of your audience. People typically store conclusions in their memory. The data itself takes a back seat. Therefore, ask yourself what is the take home message that your audience should receive? Make the statements as plastic and simple is possible and is complicated as necessary. This is a trade off that needs to be adjusted, depending on your audience. With practice and the better you know your audience, the easier this will become. Note that while you give conclusions, it might be tempting to fill in judgmental or even emotional words like exciting. We recommend against doing that. Instead, keep a professional matter of fact tone. This is because you can't be sure how your audience feels about the topic. Connect with them on a fact basis first and introduce any emotions later on during the actual presentation, if necessary, and fourth next steps that you are suggesting this could be anything from getting a decision from your audience to stating that you will do more work and come back later. The steps should be tangible and should also include a timeline. Now let's see how these four steps help Tom to write a great story for the Z 20 presentation. 55. M5 07: Before we can start with Power Point, we'd like you to install our strategized pro themes on your computer. This allows you to follow along the entire module and will also be a great template to use for your own presentations. Follow the instructions on the next screen to download the themes. 56. M5 08: toe load the strategized pro theme. Navigate to the design ribbon in Power Point and click on the down arrow next to the theme snapshots toe. Open up the full theme overview, then click on Browse for themes, navigate to the folder with the themes you just downloaded and select Strategized pro course template in the same design ribbon. Make sure to have the widescreen format enabled by clicking on slide size and choosing widescreen before you click. Next, make sure that your theme is set up properly. This module will build heavily on this theme, so it is a critical tool for you to follow along. 57. M5 09: now that you installed the strategize pro theme, navigate to the home ribbon and change the first slides format into a title slide, then click on the arrow below New slide to choose a text title in text format slide to be inserted. This will be your executive summary slide. Click on the title of the slide and write executive Summary. Now we will create the content of the executive summary as discussed before we will structure it in four parts. Context questions, answers and next steps. What do you think would be a good description of the context? 58. M5 10: Okay, here's what we thought would be a great context description. Don't worry if yours doesn't match. There are always multiple ways to write these statements. Z 20 is a fast spreading and hard to manage disease threatening a large portion of the U. S. A new proposal calls to quarantine persons based on a positive Z 20 test. Note that these two sentences set the context for your target audience. The senator. He is well aware of what Z 20 is and does not need more details for other, less informed audiences. You might want to be a little bit more elaborate on the context. Now let's go to the second part of the story. The questions to be answered. Write down your suggestion in one sentence. 59. M5 11: The key question is how this proposal would affect the expected number of future infections and now onto the third part of the story, the answers to the question above. As you remember from the previous module, we analyzed multiple different scenarios to come up with a recommendation. We looked at multiple ways to carry out the island quarantine and also identified an alternative to the island quarantine based on a fast track approval of the antidote. In this presentation, we will cover the most important scenarios. As always, think about which topics are most relevant for your audience and limit your content to exactly those here. We proposed to focus on quarantine based on single and double testing, as well as the fast track approval scenario. We'd recommend excluding the increased accuracy sub scenario, as it is neither feasible nor produces significant improvements going back to the executive summary, we'd suggest to introduce the scenarios first before giving the answers. This is because the senator won't be aware of the different substance areas already. He just wanted you to look at quarantine based on single testing. Two scenarios have been analysed. Quarantine decision based on a single versus double testing. Now you give the answers to both scenarios. Single testing increases infections on Lee. Double testing has theoretic potential to reduce infections. This likely is a surprising turn in the view of the senator. From your conversations with him, it seems like he would expect a straightforward test to be the solution to the infection problem. With the double testing proposal, you were introducing a new solution. The senator naturally would want to know if there are any additional strings attached. Therefore, it is a good idea to tell him about your findings. Double testing, however, not feasible due to Z 20 disease characteristics. Now put yourself in the shoes of your audience, the senator reading the summary. So far, he will have gone through a roller coaster of emotions. His original idea is flawed. Modifying it makes it effective yet unfeasible. And now it looks like he will have nothing to show his voters. Luckily, he has you his star employee. This is the place where you introduce your alternative solution that is both effective and feasible. You do this in two statements, mirroring the structure of the two sentences pertaining to the quarantine scenario. Alternative is to speed up the antidote development by approximately three years, resulting in approximately 30% lower infections. Speeding up antidote development by approximately three years is feasible by fast tracking legal approval. With this, you are done with the answer part of the story. Now to the fourth and final story part next steps. Next steps decide on course of action and develop implementation plan. Here you tell the senator exactly what needs to be done next. This is critical, as you want to give presentations that have immediate relevance to your audience. With this, your executive summary is done. Congratulations. 60. M5 12: Let's quickly recap where we stand in the Five Steps Slide creation process. We just finished. Step one story lining by writing a great executive summary. This will be your rock solid base for all of the remaining work. Let's see together how the entire presentation now unfolds from the executive summary. We are now ready to go to Step two and set the agenda. To do this, click on the new slide. Drop down to select the title and text slide format. For the new slide, click on the title of the slide and right agenda. We want to break down the presentation into small and easy to digest pieces for the Z 20 presentation. A straight forward structure would be, for example, the following first as an introduction the background on Z 20 in the quarantine proposal. Second, the results of the analysis that you ran on the Z 20 quarantine proposal. Third, your proposed additional options. Note that you have to make a tactical decision here. Do you want your audience to know up front that there will be additional options, or do you want the additional options low profile until you introduce them as part of the previous section. Think about the agenda your audience might have. Would they get emotional about topics on the agenda and dismiss the entire presentation if they don't like the first slide? If so, be careful. In this case, however, we think that it might suit the audience well. Given that the senator seems to be a matter of fact, results oriented, type of person, last would be next steps where you will make closing remarks about what to do next. Now you have your agenda for the presentation. Note that we spaced out the text quite a bit. This is required for what we're about to do next in step three of the presentation process . 61. M5 13: Step three in the presentation process is all about setting up a basic structure for your presentation. One word beforehand, though. We will move through the first couple of slides at a slower pace, showing you the individual steps in power Point and greater detail. If you were already quite proficient in Power Point, don't be disappointed by the slower speed in the beginning. With each slide, we will pick up the pace and move faster, so hang in there and pay attention. Nevertheless, there may always be shortcuts and tricks you didn't know about yet. Having said that, let's create the dividers for the individual sections with a little trick will reuse the agenda. Slide for this purpose. Here's how to do it. First, navigate your mouse to the agenda. Slide on the left side of the screen, right click on the agenda slide and select duplicates. Slide now navigate to the drawing section in the home ribbon and select rectangle. Draw a rectangle that spans the entire width of the slide from left to right and about three times as high as one line of text. Right. Click on the rectangle and select center back. Now use your mouse to drag the rectangle so that it is placed neatly around the first agenda item. Select the text for the other three agenda items below and unb old the font. This is your first divider. It will signal the audience that the following slides will be part of the first agenda point. Now you can easily create the other dividers, navigate to the mini slides on the left and right Click on this slide. Select duplicates slide and repeat three times. You now have four dividers. Just move the rectangle to the respective place on each slide and bold in the text framed by the rectangle. Your four divider slides should look like this. This, this and this now that we have the dividers set up will create the blank slides with titles . 62. M5 14: remember how he set up the executive summary. We purposefully constructed it in a way that now allows us to just go ahead and create one slide per statement. As we already took care of the story lining by writing the executive summary, this almost automatically results in a stringent and convincing presentation again. All we need to do is create one slide per statement and provide the content that supports the respective statement. To get started, we will first create blank slides with titles matching the executive summary statements. If you remember, the 1st 2 statements provided the context in general, each of the statements on the executive summary will get its own slide. But what about the third statement, which tells the audience the key question that the document answers? In this case, we think that this statement does not necessarily weren't its own slide, as there is little else to say. Therefore, the three statements will be supported by two slides where the second slide will cover both the second and third statement. Let's add to blank slides in the context section of the presentation. Next, we'll copy and paste the two statements from the executive summary into the slide titles of the two slides. Having set up the first section, it is time to take a big picture. Look at the presentation structure for this power point as a neat feature called Slide Sorter. Click on the Foursquare's Icon at the bottom of your power point screen Tow launch slide sorter mode. The slide sorter view gives you a great way to look at the overall structure of your presentation. Use the zoom buttons on the bottom right of your screen to magnify the slides. For comfortable reading of the slide titles, we recommend you to make frequent use of the slide sorter view when creating presentations . This way, you can easily track your progress and recognize any gaps or superfluous slides. Let's move on by inserting the blank slides for the second section, double click on the agenda slide for the second section to be taken back to the regular editing mode. Now insert three blank slides and copy the three next statements into the slide. Titles repeat the same for the third and fourth section of the presentation. After doing so, the slide sorter mode should show 14 slides with titles on each of them. This is your skeleton deck that you could now start working into. Note how this process eliminates waste by focusing your attention on exactly those slides that need to be created for the presentation. Complete thes slides and you will have a convincing document. We strongly suggest that any additional backup slides that might come to your mind should be created on Lee later on. Always focus on the key slides First, this is also a great time to divide and conquer. The deck is set up, and slides need to be created if you work in a team, assigned responsibilities for individual slides and distribute your work by having everyone create one or more slides again. Preparing the deck in this way before dividing up work automatically ensures that your team's work is coming together nicely. In the end, follow this process and you'll stop wasting time in team work situations. Promise 63. M5 15: in our five step process. We now completed Step three. The structural step. Time to move on to Step four, creating the slides navigate to the first blank slide to get started. The slide content you are about to create should support this message No more and no less. As you can see, there are actually two statements included in the title. First, the disease is spreading fast, and second, it is hard to manage. This really calls for a two column slide. Doesn't each column will support one of the two statements made in the slide title quick on layout in the home ribbon to change the slide format to a two column format. Now click on the Left column title and write down the first statement. Instead of using the exact words of the slide title, Rephrase it a little bit. You could, for example, say Z 20 is a highly infectious disease, and neat and often used trick is to have one sentence across multiple columns. In this instance. Simply write a second part to the sentence. In the second column, for example, you could complete the above sentence the following way. See, 20 is a highly infectious disease dot, dot dot, which is hard to manage. OK, now the basic structure of the slightest set. Let's support the two messages with content. How would you support the statement that Z 20 is? Ah, highly infectious disease? 64. M5 16: as a general rule of thumb. Whenever you have convincing data that supports your message, use it to make your point. It has a certain level of objectivity attached and therefore is often most convincing. Qualitative reasoning, such as selected quotes from people, should be used only when data is not available, or is an additional perspective complementing the data. Therefore, we are going with a chart here. Remember that you received data on the number of infected people over the past months. Let's put that data into a chart and see how well it supports our message. Since we want to show a simple trend of a single figure, we will use a bar or column chart. Click on insert, then on chart in Select column, Select Stacked column and press. OK, now move the chart to the left side of the slide and resize it so that it fits neatly below the left column. Let's give this baby a professional look right. Click on chart title and delete it next, right. Click on one of the horizontal lines within the chart and select delete. Now your chart should looked like this. Next we will fill in the data right. Click on the chart and select Edit data Toe. Open up a small table, since we only have one data. Siri's the number of infections. Delete the columns named Siri's two in Series three. Then click on the little green Triangle and sell D five Dragged the green rectangles that it fits around the first column. With this action, you are setting the range of cells that feed your chart. You want to avoid this being larger than your data set, as it would create unnecessary items in your chart. Next renamed the column title from Siri's one to Z 20 Infections. Replace the line names to represent the dates of your infection numbers. Category one becomes J. N. 15 for January 2015. Category two becomes J. U L 2015 for July 2015 and so on. Here's an important tip. Use an apostrophe at the beginning of each line. For example, type apostrophe Jan. 15 This will make Power point. Interpret the line as text instead of a date. If you miss that step, Power Point will automatically space out the bars in your chart and create gaps for each missing month in between. Next enter the infection numbers for the respective dates will take all numbers from our analysis module and use millions to make things easier. Note that we created an additional data point for January 2017. We do not have this data yet, but want to show on out. Look into the future here. We just assumed a doubling from year to year, so we just entered 12 again. Make sure that Power Point uses the correct range of cells for your data input. Here. Power Point uses one too many lines, so we just dragged the colored frames into place. Close the table toe. Look at your chart. Beautiful, isn't it? Let's put a little makeup to publish it even more. Remember that the last value for January 2017 was just a rough projection. Let's make this clear. By making this individual bar look different, click twice on the gray bar and then right click to select format Data point. A new format menu will open on the right hand side. Click on the bucket icon in the fill section. Click on No, Phil, this gets you a white bar for January 2017 showing that this bar is based on a projection instead of actual data. You may have noticed that we confused Power point with this so that the program created a separate legend below the chart. Since we do not have multiple data, Siri's just right. Click on the legend and press delete. Let's put some finishing touch on this chart, right click on any of the bars and select Add data labels. Then, in the insert ribbon, insert a text box on the top left corner of the chart to enter a title for the chart. Always remember to title your charts and always always always note the measurement unit. In this example, the chart shows the number of Z 20 carriers in the measurement unit is 1,000,000 people. Write that into the chart title right click on the Y axis and select a light grey outline so that the UAE access line is visible. With this, your first professional looking chart is done. Let's take a quick stab at the fine print at the bottom of the slide, click on the text box and cite the source in this case, a short source. US. Government Try pharmaceuticals should be sufficient. Always remember to include your sources for anything that your audience might be skeptical about. Now we will move on to the other side of the slide. We need some evidence to support the statement that Z 20 is a hard to manage disease. Let's make it simple and use short and precise arguments presented in a bullet point structure quick somewhere inside the text box. Then select the bullet point icon from the home ribbon. Let's write down why we think that Z 20 is hard to manage. What comes to your mind? 65. M5 17: Okay, So here are our top three arguments. Y Z 20 is hard to manage. First. Disease carriers typically are not aware of their infection. Second disease carriers cannot be easily identified. And third, it is unclear exactly when an antidote will be available. As always, make sure these bullet points fulfill the me see rule. Do you remember what this rule was about? 66. M5 18: here. All three bullets are mutually exclusive. They do not make overlapping arguments. Each bullet presents an entirely different argument. The three bullets are also collectively exhaustive. There are no other relevant reasons whether disease is hard to manage. Now that the slide's content is done, let's finish this slide with some more polishing. Click anywhere into the text of the bullet points, press control and A to select all texts in the text box. Then select line spacing options from the home ribbons paragraph section in the spacing section, Enter 18 point for After spacing, this will space out the bullets more widely. White space on your slide will be reduced, and as a result, your argumentation will look more space filling and intuitively more profound. Funny how small visual arrangements can improve the overall impression, don't they? As an option, you could do one more tweet to this slide on the left hand side at a co out that you can use to highlight the steep nature of the infection curve within the drawing section of the home ribbon click to expand the shape menu and select the rectangular call out. Draw a rectangle above the bars in the chart and dragged the yellow dot to the last bar. Now type exponential growth curve if you want at another text box with a large red exclamation mark. With this, your first slide is done. Congratulations. This slide looks clean and professional, focused on the essential messages. Strive to give all your slides this type of look as long as your slides are meant for classic business presentations as mentioned before, we will pick up the pace for the following slides and will get faster and faster over time . Jump back to the instructions of this slide if you feel the need to get a refresher on some of the functionalities and techniques. 67. M5 19: Let's build the second slide. What do you believe should be the content of this slide? 68. M5 20: to determine the content. Ask yourself what you want to achieve with this slide. At this point in the presentation, it makes sense to provide a little refresher about what, exactly, you are investigating. Therefore, this slide should provide a high level overview of the quarantine proposal. Since your audience is a senior government official, don't go into too much detail and focus on the big picture. Instead, note that if you were to present to a group of experts, you'd want to go into much more detail here. The main content of the slide would just be a few bullet points outlining the proposal Content. Quite a boring slide, don't you think so? In such a situation, it's a great idea to use, um, graphics to support your content. Here. We'd use a two column format with the left column deleted to make space for a map on this map. We showed the U. S. Mainland and the quarantine island. By the way, Google images is a great resource for pictures and illustrations. Make sure the check copyrights, though, in case you are creating a professionally used presentation coming back to our slide Named the right column. Two key facts of the proposal. What do you think should be the key facts on this slide 69. M5 21: here is what we think are the relevant facts in this high level summary. Take some time to compare our solution with your answers. Don't fret over minor differences. Compare the gist of the messages and the crispness of their formulation. Now the slightest technically complete. However, as you remember, we wanted to include the third statement of the executive summary, namely the key questions to be answered on this light as well. A great way to do so is by utilising a so called take away box in the home ribbon Select rectangle and draw a box at the bottom of the slide spanning the width of the entire slide . Then include the third statement of the executive summary in this box. Feel free to slightly modify the wording to shorten the statement as necessary. Use bold fonts to make keywords pop out even more. Lastly, at a source to the slide in this case, U. S. Government. With this, we checked off three of the statements on the executive summary. Already great progress 70. M5 22: you so far addressed the three statements on the executive summary. The first chapter is already covered, and you are ready to move on to the analysis chapter of the presentation. According to the executive summary, you now need to create a slide showing that you analyzed two different scenarios. Single testing and double testing. Which slide layout do you choose for the new slide? 71. M5 23: now this was easy. You have two scenarios to introduce. Therefore, select a two column layout and label the columns accordingly. For each column, you want to explain what the scenario is all about. Keep in mind that the senator only thought about the single testing scenario so far. You are adding quite a bit of complexity here, so keep things as simple and easy to understand as possible. Again, graphics are a good way to explain complex topics. Let's use a simple flow chart here. Shrink the text boxes below each column to make space for the charts. Then start with the easier single testing chart on the left, from the drawing section of the home button used text boxes and elbow arrow connectors to drop the flow chart. Using this visualization, single testing is easy to understand at a glance. Next will tackle the more complex double testing scenario 72. M5 24: compare your solution with a flow chart on here. Did you get it right? 73. M5 25: Let's put some finishing touches on these charts to make them more appealing and better to read. Press and hold control while selecting all arrows one by one. Then navigate to the format ribbon. Select shape, outline and increase the weight to two and 1/4. Then, in the same shape outlined menu. Choose a medium gray color for the arrows. Next, select all text boxes named positive or negative, and color the fund in the same tone of grey as the arrows. Then select both island quarantine text boxes and colored in red. The slide looks much better now, but still a little too complex. Let's apply another design trick. To do away with this problem. Insert a rectangle a top of the flow chart on the left so that it is covered entirely in the drawing section of the home ribbon. Select a white shape Phil and a light grey outline, then click on shape effects and select a shadow with a bottom right offset. Copy and paste the form from the left column to the right column in the drawing section. Select a range and sent to back. The resulting boxes provide a guiding structure for your audience his eyes and make this slide much better to read on top. It looks fancy, too. Let's add a bit more information to both scenarios. The charts already show how they work, so we can add more qualitative information below. In the text boxes, for example, we could talk about their qualitative merits and disadvantages. Here, however, we won't talk about the results of our analysis yet just the obvious facts about both scenarios presented in a pro and con list. We added a little rectangle on the left, saying evaluation to explain what the bullet points are all about. Then we wrote down the key bullets that the audience should know about. To make things easier to read, we will cover the bullet points with green pluses for advantages and red minuses for disadvantages. To do that simply created text box, enter a plus or minus. Increase the font size to 32 points. Bolden the font and color it accordingly. Then copy and paste the text boxes in place them on top of the bullet point markers. With this, another slide is done 74. M5 26: Let's move on to the next slide. Which slide format would you use here? Okay, so that was a trick question. Of course, you can use to different slide types here. For example. You could pull the two column trick once more, showing a chart on the left for the results of single testing in a chart on the right for the results of double testing. Possibly you could also add 1/3 column to show the results of the do nothing scenario where no action is taken at all. Alternatively, you could just combine all scenarios into one big chart spanning the entire slide. Here we propose to do exactly that. Why? Because it makes the difference scenarios easy to compare. Imagine comparing graphs across three charts that would be much more difficult than if the results were shown in one chart. The $2 million questions Now, our first, What should be on the chart? And second, which chart type do you use 75. M5 27: First of all, you want to compare different scenarios. All three of them should be on the chart. You want to show some sort of development over time, either in total base of infected people or in the annual change, the number of new infections. What is better? If you show the total number of infected people, the chart will be more steady in less dramatic. This is because the annual rate of infections in all scenarios is small compared to the number of already infected people, resulting in slowly changing curves. On the other hand, showing the annual change in number of infections gives you a more lively chart. Additionally, it is also a better representation of the effect of the three scenarios as this method cancels out the effect of the already large infected base. Therefore, in this case, we will display the annual number of new infections in all three scenarios. Do nothing single testing and double testing. Now, which chart type would you use for this purpose? Here? We want to show multiple scenarios and the respective development over time. This calls for a simple line chart. Doesn't it note that in this case, the scenarios do not build upon each other. Therefore, a bar chart would not be appropriate to use. A bar chart would be appropriate, for example, to show a company's sales projection over time, with individual product lines stacked up. Two bars click on the insert ribbon than on chart to eventually select an insert a line chart. There should be an Excel box popping up automatically. If not right, click the chart and select edit data to summon it. Change the category labels in column A two numbers one through 11 to denote the year numbers, Then change the column. Labels in Line one to the three scenario names do nothing single testing and double testing Time to enter the data, which you calculated in the previous module. Open the respective Excel files for single and double testing quarantine. Navigate to throughput sheet three. To retrieve the annual number of infections, copy and paste the data from your Excel Analysis into the Power Point data window. Note that the Excel module has the data in a line where his power point requires the data to be in columns. Fortunately, you can easily adjust this in excel. Select the data range you want to copy, Click on an empty space below the data table and select Paste Special in the pop up menu. Select values and check the transposed box. Excel will paste the data in a column, which you can now just copy and paste to power point. After pasting all the data sets to Power Point, close the table to see the resulting chart again. We will now go on to give this slide the Polish it deserves. Remember that your slide deck already looks really professional, so don't mess up a great impression with Slump. E Slide details With a little practice, the final Polish will take you a little time but will go a long way to secure a great impression on your audience. First off, let's modify the chart. Remove the chart title placeholder by right clicking on chart title and selecting delete, then do the same for the horizontal lines in the chart. Let's also give this chart of proper Why Access line for this right click on any of the labels on the Y axis, then click on the outline button, showing up next to your cursor and select a great tone to match the X axis. Next right click on any of the X axis labels and select format axis for excess position. Choose on tick marks. This will let the line charts originate directly from the Y axis instead of with a gap as before, quite a nitty gritty detail, but it just looks much better now that we have the general style out of the way. Let's put down some labels, insert text boxes on top of all lines and name the scenarios, Then delete the chart legend below the chart, as it is no longer required. Additionally, reformat all lines to better match your story. The do nothing scenario gets a light gray color to reflect that it is shown for comparison . The double testing quarantine scenario gets a dark green color, reflecting that it is yielding the best results. The line is set to dotted to imply that there are some caveats for this scenario, namely that it is not feasible. The single testing quarantine scenario gets a dark grey, implying that it is not desirable. Then insert the text boxes to name the why and the X axis accordingly. Note that we also added footnotes for additional explanation and while doing so included sources as well. Now, every time you are going to present key results that are high on the agenda of your audience, expect them to ask critical questions. A great presentation anticipates those questions and answers them proactively. This will inspire a tremendous amount of confidence in your ability to think ahead and have your work under full control. Let's try to anticipate your audiences questions. Take a step back and look at the slide. Put yourself into your audiences shoes and think about what their initial reaction would be like. 76. M5 28: your audience will likely see that all curves go to zero eventually. The reason is that an antidote is becoming more and more likely to be available over time, reaching on 100% likelihood by the beginning of your 11. This is a great example for which you should proactively include additional information on your slide. An easy way to show the change of a key driver of your analysis over time is to add bubbles below each year, right down the likelihood of the antidote availability in each bubble corresponding to a year. Remember to include a text box on the left to explain what these bubbles are about. With this, your audience should be ableto better. Understand the curves on the chart. Another question your audience will have at this point is why the single testing quarantine scenario produces mawr instead of less infections. Remember that your audience will come to the presentation with the expectation to see a positive impact of the quarantine solution. Therefore, it is prudent to include a call out explaining the basic reasoning. Justus, we show here and finally your audience could possibly want to know how many people will be infected in total over time as opposed to the annual new infections, make it easy for the audience by adding up the numbers for them. Include a summary box showing the totals Make it stand out by adding a nice frame, some shadow in a great triangle, pointing to the box within the chart. You could also add an arrow to illustrate the difference between the do nothing and double testing quarantine scenarios. With this, the slide itself is complete. However, before we move on to the next slide, we'd like to show you one more key concept for your presentations, effectively connecting information across multiple slides. On this and the previous slide, you are talking about different scenarios. Help your reader follow along by enumerating the scenarios and carrying that enumeration across multiple slides. Go back to the previous slide and insert two in new Marais tid red bubbles, one for each of the two columns. Then copy those two bubbles and go to the line chart slide to insert the two bubbles and next to the appropriate lines. Note that we also included another reference here, a yellow call out telling your audience that the double testing quarantine scenario is not feasible and that the next page will provide additional details on this. Using this technique, it is easy for your audience toe follow along and understand how the individual slides work together. Even better time to move on to the next slide. 77. M5 29: your audience will likely see that all curves go to zero eventually. The reason is that an antidote is becoming more and more likely to be available over time, reaching on 100% likelihood by the beginning of your 11. This is a great example for which you should proactively include additional information on your slide. An easy way to show the change of a key driver of your analysis over time is to add bubbles below each year, right down the likelihood of the antidote availability in each bubble corresponding to a year. Remember to include a text box on the left to explain what these bubbles are about. With this, your audience should be ableto better. Understand the curves on the chart. Another question your audience will have at this point is why the single testing quarantine scenario produces mawr instead of less infections. Remember that your audience will come to the presentation with the expectation to see a positive impact of the quarantine solution. Therefore, it is prudent to include a call out explaining the basic reasoning. Justus, we show here and finally your audience could possibly want to know how many people will be infected in total over time as opposed to the annual new infections, make it easy for the audience by adding up the numbers for them. Include a summary box showing the totals Make it stand out by adding a nice frame, some shadow in a great triangle, pointing to the box within the chart. You could also add an arrow to illustrate the difference between the do nothing and double testing quarantine scenarios. With this, the slide itself is complete. However, before we move on to the next slide, we'd like to show you one more key concept for your presentations, effectively connecting information across multiple slides. On this and the previous slide, you are talking about different scenarios. Help your reader follow along by enumerating the scenarios and carrying that enumeration across multiple slides. Go back to the previous slide and insert two in new Marais tid red bubbles, one for each of the two columns. Then copy those two bubbles and go to the line chart slide to insert the two bubbles and next to the appropriate lines. Note that we also included another reference here, a yellow call out telling your audience that the double testing quarantine scenario is not feasible and that the next page will provide additional details on this. Using this technique, it is easy for your audience toe follow along and understand how the individual slides work together. Even better time to move on to the next slide. 78. M5 30: time to take a step back again. Open up slide sorter mode like you did before to see an overview of your slides in the presentation. Looks like we're done with the analysis section, and there are only three slides left. The next section will detail additional options beyond introducing the quarantine. Remember that you don't want to leave the senator with a slide, telling him that there is nothing for him to dio. Instead, we want to show him that there are even better options. Double click on the next empty slide to go back to editing mode. Think about what to show on the slide to support the titles message. For sure, you will have to detail that this alternative yields a 30% reduction and infections, and that it is quite feasible is well, otherwise you wouldn't suggested as an alternative. Additionally, you also examined a second alternative, namely increasing the test accuracy from 96% to 99%. Show the results of your examination for this option as well. So how would you set up the slide 79. M5 31: here we suggest going with a clear cut, three column format. Each line will include the name of the alternative, the effect size and a feasibility rating. Note that we used footnotes here to detail the exact definition of the effect, size and the source of the feasibility evaluation for which Tom carried out expert interviews with Try pharmaceuticals and additional independent experts in the first column , insert text boxes in matching pictures with a nice shadow effect to describe the two alternatives. Note a little graphics trick that we use here. Bold Black fund for the name of the alternative and a great regular fund below describing its mechanism of action. This is a trick that you can reuse in multiple situations to instantly pep up your slides. Add the estimated effect size in the second column. Based on your analysis results in the Excel file. The third column is a bit more qualitative. It would be hard to put an exact number on the feasibility of each option in such a case, so called Harvey balls are a great option. Essentially their little balls, with a fill ranging from empty to full, most often in quarter steps, the Fuller. The Harvey Ball. The higher the rating here, speeding up the antidote development gets a 3/4 Harvey Ball based on the high feasibility revealed in towns interviews. Where is increasing the test accuracy gets an empty Harvey ball, implying no chance at all. You can find a set of Harvey balls to use in your presentations in the download section. Now, like with the previous slide put on your audiences shoes again. What will they have on their mind? The senator might think that this is great, as there is really an impactful and feasible alternative to the quarantine scenario. However, the quarantine scenario is still his baseline. He will want to compare your alternative to his quarantine scenario. Therefore, do him the favor and insert an extra line that pits the double testing quarantine scenario against your alternatives. This immediately shows that the quarantine scenario is more impactful, yet not feasible. The senator is unlikely to conclude that he won't get the most impactful measure, but certainly the most realistic, which happens to be quite effective. Also note the little graphic details we introduced here to make clear that this third line item is separate from the others, we used a semi transparent, white colored box that covers the entire line. Also, we added a little great text box covering the icon of this third line item to signify that this is for comparison only. Lastly, you want to guide your audience towards your preferred alternative at a green rectangle around the first line item in a text box with green font giving a short him while you were highlighting this particular alternative. This helps your audience to quickly focus on the key message. With this, the slide is technically complete. Taking a look at the next statement of the executive summary, you realize that the following slide will provide additional detail on your recommended alternative. Also, you might want to add backup slides for the second alternative as well, in case your audience questions the effect, size or feasibility estimates. Knowing this, you should again try toe lengthy upcoming slides to this slide by adding red bubbles to the two alternatives, naming them A and B in order to avoid confusion with the previously used one and two bubbles. Now you are ready to move on to the next slide 80. M5 32: to start with. You want to insert a slide guide on the top left corner to remind your audience that you're discussing option A speeding up the antidote development. Having this out of the way, let's think which point you'd want to make with this slide. Basically, you want to tell your audience that speeding up the antidote development by exactly three years is the right goal, tohave as it is, a sweet spot combination of challenging yet feasible. Also, you want to give some more detail on the assumptions you made to arrive at your evaluation . Let's start with a two column slide, key assumptions on the left and expected results on the right. For the left side, we'd suggest using a few bullet points to explain the basic reasoning, as well as an illustrating chart to make the assumptions more tangible. As you probably remember, the antidote availability is a probabilistic measure. Each year from year 1 to 10 the likelihood of the antidote being available increases by 10% points, starting at 10% at the end of your one up until 100% at the end of your 10. If we manage to speed up the antidote development by three years. The antidote will be already available at the end of year seven for sure. Similarly, for each year in between year one and year seven, the likelihood of availability is higher than before. The curve still start at 10% in your one, but increases more steeply to plateau at 100% from your seven onwards. 81. M5 33: Here's what this chart should look like. Also remember to properly format that chart and include titles for Why and X Axis. If you need to review the process of how to get to this chart, revisit the section where we built the previous line chart. A few explanatory bullets at a below the chart will help to make the logic even clearer. This is especially important if you expect your document to be sent before your presentation or to people who do not attend your presentation, as you will not get the chance to explain. Orly always strive to make your slides understandable whether you are able to provide an aural comment or not moving on to the right column of the slide, we proposed to illustrate how increasingly aggressive speed up timelines make the effect larger yet decreased the feasibility. For example, we could compare how much the number of infections will be reduced compared to the do nothing scenario when the antidote availability is improved by one up to five years. Here, we prefer to use a bar chart as we're only looking at a single variable, insert the bar chart and formatted accordingly again. If you need to review the process. Revisit the section in which we created the previous bar chart. Next, we'll need to add an illustration showing that the more you want to speed up the antidote development, the more difficult it gets. A simple way to do that is to add a color Grady and Arrow. To do this, insert a regular arrow below the bar chart pointing to the right. Then format the shape to have a Grady Int Phil and set a color for each grade Ian stop. This gives you a fully customizable colored radiant. Here we choose a green too dark orange radiant to illustrate the increasing difficulty from left to right. Note that we also added common tweaks such as footnotes, the Great Triangle in the middle, linking the two columns and additional explanatory text. Use these little details as you see fit, and always put yourself into your audiences shoes to see which extra information may be helpful. If required, additional backup slides can be produced, for example, to cover alternative, be increasing the test accuracy. For now, though, let's move on to the last slide in the presentation 82. M5 34: the last slide in the presentation should be covering next steps. You don't want your audience to walk away feeling like they received information on Lee. Instead, you want to make them do something. That's why you are presenting right. Make your next steps and easy text only slide with only a few succinct statements on the highest level the slide title recommends to specific next steps. These two statements should be in the text with sub bullets below for further detail. Therefore, start by writing them down in the text area, then add some bullet points for additional details below each of the two statements. Here you are giving a clear cut overview of the options for your audience to choose, as well as an outlook of what needs to be done next on any next steps slide. Try to create this sense of responsibility in your audience and a sense of urgency with clear next steps that need to be taken 83. M5 35: Now take a step back again and open up slide sorter mode. Wow, This looks like a neat and professional presentation, doesn't it? Up front, there is a clearly formulated executive summary that is easy to read and complete in its content. Afterwards, there are clean and focus slides, each pertaining toe. One statement in the executive summary. The content on each slide, in turn, supports the slide statement. We hope you agree that using this presentation, structure and workflow was paramount to creating a quite compelling and coherent presentation on the C 20 disease in a short period of time. Practice this approach whenever you're creating your own presentations. Also, please share your comments here about your experience with this approach. Remember that you can download the final presentation from the course website. As a bonus. The download contains two additional backup slides not covered here. One of them displays ah, highly useful waterfall chart, which can be used in many situations. Be sure to check it out by downloading the presentation 84. M6 01: the results of your work came as a surprise to the senator. As expected, he asked many questions regarding your approach, the assumptions and your conclusions. Luckily, you were well prepared to answer all his questions so that he gained a high level of confidence in the results with the help of your concise and to the point presentation. It did not take long to convince the senator to disregard his island quarantine proposal. He quickly warmed up to your alternative proposal of fast tracking the Z 20 antidote certification process. With this, you have now completed the strategized pro course. Congratulations. We are proud to have had you on our course before we wrap things up. However, we would like to quickly recap what was covered in this course in the first module. You were thrown in at the deep end. The senator had a complicated proposal to be evaluated. He and his friend Julie, the CEO of a pharmaceuticals company, both had a lot to say about this proposal offering you a large amount of unorganized information. In the second module, you took time to structure the information and hone in on the underlying issue. The SC qs framework was the key tool for that and resulted in a clearly formulated target question. With this, you laid the critical foundation for all subsequent work in later modules. Answering this target question became the ultimate and clear objective of all work. After this step in the third module, you set up a structured approach for your task to do so. You broke down the target question into its main components by compiling a multi tiered driver tree. This driver tree comprised the exact guide for the following modules. In the fourth module, you used Microsoft Excel to build a highly flexible and clearly structured quantitative motto. This model incorporated all the data points you gathered beforehand and process them to come up with a data driven, objective answer to the target question. Along the way, you had to take some assumptions, which you pressure tested in a conversation with Julie. Realizing that the Senators proposal was not feasible, you also came up with an evaluated alternative approaches, one of which became the recommendation that ended up convincing the senator. Last but not least, in Module five, you utilized a five step process to build a convincing power point presentation in the shortest possible time. In this presentation, you highlighted the most relevant insights and results from your analysis and gave a clear answer to the target question. This course gave you a detailed look at how you can walk through future projects on your own. Remember that you can always apply the concepts taught in this course to any other situation as well. We hope you found this step by step process helpful. Based on our experience, we are certain of its transformative value in helping you and others achieve better results in significantly less time. Go back to this courses concepts whenever required to refresh her knowledge and keep our strategized pro pdf guide handy for quick reference. Remember to get the most out of this course, you should apply these concepts as often as possible during the upcoming weeks. This will help reinforce the learnings and improve understanding at a deeper level. With this, all that's left is congratulating you on completing this course. We hope you enjoy the experience and are very proud to count you among our course. Alumni stay in touch